:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 Jul 02 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
24 - 30 June 2002

Solar activity was at very low-to-low levels with isolated B- and
C-class X-ray flares during most of the period. Sunspot groups of
interest included Regions 8, 17, and 19. Region 8 (S10, L = 291,
class/area Dki/540 on 25 June) was large with a minor degree of
magnetic complexity and began to gradually decay on 27 June. It was
the possible source for a long-duration B-class X-ray enhancement
late on 27 June, which was associated with a partial-halo CME.
Region 17 (S19, L = 235, class/area Dso/100 on 30 June) produced
isolated B-class subflares. It was moderate in size and complexity
and gradually developed as the period progressed. Region 19 (S18, L
= 150, class/area Dko/450 on 30 June) rotated into view on 30 June
as a large, moderately complex group with mixed polarities (and a
possible delta magnetic configuration) within its trailer spots. A
long-duration C2 X-ray flare occurred during 30/0915 – 1625 UTC
associated with an eruptive prominence and CME off the southeast
limb.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period. A weak
disturbance passed ACE during 29 - 30 June associated with minor
increases in velocity, IMF total field intensity, density, and
temperature. The partial-halo CME of 27 June may have been the
source for this disturbance.

There were no proton events during the period.

Greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit were at
normal to moderate levels during the summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels through
29 June. Activity increased to quiet to active levels on 30 June,
likely due to weak CME effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 - 29 July 2002

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There is
a chance for isolated low-level M-class flares through 12 July. Low
activity levels are expected after 12 July.

No proton events are expected.

Greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit are
expected to be at normal to moderate levels for most of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels during the majority of the period. However, active periods
will be possible during 06 – 07, 16 and 20 July due to coronal hole
effects.

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