:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 Jun 11 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 - 09 June 2002

Solar activity was low. Isolated B- and C-class X-ray flares occurred
during the period from a few moderate- to large-sized sunspot
groups, none of which were remarkably complex. However, Region 9973
(S16, L = 144, class/area Eki/960 on 29 May) was notable in that it
was large and possessed moderate magnetic complexity. It produced
isolated B- and C-class flares, but gradually decayed and simplified
as the period progressed. Region 9979 (S29, L = 170, class/area
Dao/170 on 01 June) was the source for a long-duration C3 X-ray
flare, which peaked at 05/0945 UTC. The flare was associated with an
Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). Region 9979 gradually
decayed during the period. Region 9987 (S16, L = 144, class/area
Eki/240 on 09 June) produced isolated B-class subflares late in the
period. It grew gradually during the latter half of the period and
was moderate in size and complexity.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period. A weak CME
shock front passed ACE at approximately 08/1028 UTC associated with
a relatively minor increase in velocity, IMF field intensity, and
density. IMF Bz turned southward for a few hours following the shock
with maximum deflections to minus 12 nT (GSM). Velocities,
densities, and temperatures began to increase late on 09 June,
possibly due to coronal hole effects.

There were no proton events during the period.

Greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit were at
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
through 07 June. Activity increased to quiet to active levels on 08
June following a sudden impulse at 08/1141 UTC (16 nT, Boulder USGS
magnetometer). The increase was associated with a weak CME passage.
Quiet to active levels also occurred on 09 June, possibly due to
weak coronal hole effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
12 June - 08 July 2002

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the
period. Isolated low-level M-class flares are possible through 28
June.

No proton events are expected.

Greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit are
expected to be at normal to moderate levels for most of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expectd to be at quiet to unsettled
levels for most of the period. However, active conditions are
possible around 23 and 29 June, and 6 – 7 July.

.