Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 1, 2002 at 02:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 30. Solar wind speed ranged between 347 and 402 km/sec. A weak disturbance was in progress most of the day. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 146.5, the planetary A index was 17 (3-hour K indices: 2334 3434, Boulder K indices: 2333 3223). Region 10008 was quiet and stable as it began to rotate over the southwest limb. Region 10011 decayed and was spotless by early morning. A few spots reemerged towards the end of the day. Region 10012 reemerged with a few spots, slowly at first, then very quickly towards the end of the day. The region is interesting as it has a dominant positive polarity area with negative areas at both the eastern and western sides. A magnetic delta structure could be forming but with the region near the northwest limb it is difficult to confirm this. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 10016 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10017 developed further and could produce a minor M class flare. Region 10018 decayed quickly and was spotless by early morning. Region 10019 is a complex region with a magnetic delta structure within the southernmost penumbra. M class flares are possible. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C class events was recorded on June 30. Region 10017 produced a C1.7 flare at 19:49 UTC. Region 10019 was the source of a very long duration C2.1 event peaking at 12:57 UTC. A large and fairly slow partial halo CME was associated with the LDE. Most of the ejected material was observed off of the southeast limb. There is a minor chance that some of the ejected material could reach the Earth on July 3. A large filament eruption at a high latitude in the central southern hemisphere preceded the event in region 10019. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on July 3 and could cause a geomagnetic disturbance on July 6. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 1-3 with a chance of a few active intervals early in the period. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10008 2002.06.18 1 S10W83 0340 HKX area too large, 10011 2002.06.22 8 S10W46 0040 DSO spot count too high, classification BXO beta-gamma 10012 2002.06.23 2 N14W73 0040 BXO classification DAO by midnight 10013 2002.06.23 N04W85 plage 10014 2002.06.23 S18W41 plage 10015 2002.06.24 S26W42 10016 2002.06.25 3 S15E04 0060 CSO beta-gamma 10017 2002.06.27 15 S19W23 0100 DSO classification should be DAI 10018 2002.06.29 2 N14W84 0040 BXO actually spotless beta-gamma-delta 10019 2002.06.29 10 S18E61 0450 DKO classification should be EKI Total number of sunspots: 41 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 148.7 (1) 146.0 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]