Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 30, 2002 at 00:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 29. Solar wind speed ranged between 319 and 369 km/sec. A weak coronal stream appears to be in progress early on June 30. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 142.7, the planetary A index was 9 (3-hour K indices: 2112 3333, Boulder K indices: 2221 2322). Region 10005 rotated off the visible disk and could not be observed after 02h UTC. Surprisingly, SEC/NOAA still included this region with a single spot in their spot summary. Region 10008 was quiet and stable, the region will rotate over the southwest limb on July 1. Region 10011 decayed further and was quiet. The spots in the southern section of the region could disappear later today. Region 10016 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 10017 developed slowly and may be capable of C class flaring. New region 10018 emerged near the northwest limb and will rotate off the visible disk early on July 1. New region 10019 rotated into view at the southeast limb. This is a fairly complex region which may be capable of minor M class flaring. The region is by far the most active region on the disk. Flares and CMEs A total of 4 C class events was recorded on June 29. A C2.6 flare at 00:34 and a C1.1 flare at 15:50 UTC appeared to have their origin in region 10019, the other two C flares may also have had their origin there. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on July 3. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 30 to July 2. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10005 2002.06.16 1 N13W95 0060 HAX 10008 2002.06.18 4 S10W69 0410 CKO 10011 2002.06.22 9 S11W32 0050 CSO area too large 10012 2002.06.23 N21W61 plage 10013 2002.06.23 N04W72 plage 10014 2002.06.23 S18W28 plage 10015 2002.06.24 S26W29 10016 2002.06.25 5 S16E18 0080 CSO 10017 2002.06.27 7 S19W11 0040 DSO beta-gamma 10018 2002.06.29 3 N15W73 0040 CSO 10019 2002.06.29 6 S17E72 0270 DKO beta-gamma Total number of sunspots: 35 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 148.8 (1) 142.3 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]