Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 29, 2002 at 04:45 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 317 and 375 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 137.3, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 2112 2332, Boulder K indices: 1220 1322). Region 10005 rotated quietly over the northwest limb. Region 10008 decayed further losing all spots outside of the huge penumbra and some penumbral area as well. An isolated M class flare is possible. Region 10011 decayed further and lost its leader spots. The region could soon become spotless. The northern part of this region - actually a separate region - decayed early in the day and was spotless during the early morning. Some slow development was observed during the latter half of the day and early on June 29 there are more spots in the northern section than in the southern section. Region 10015 decayed further and was spotless by early evening. Region 10016 developed slowly with several spots emerging north of the main penumbra. Some of these spots were gone again late in the day. Region 10017 decayed in the leading spots section, however, some development was observed in the trailing section which now has a positive northern penumbra and a negative southern penumbra. Early on June 29 two new regions are visible, one emerging region near the northwest limb and a region rotating into view at the southeast limb. The latter region could be the return of old region 9987 and displayed some activity during the latter half of June 28 with several surges observed at the limb. Flares and CMEs A single C class event was recorded on June 28, a C1.1 flare in region 10008 at 06:33 UTC. A partial halo CME observed late on June 27 had no obvious source on the visible disk and was likely the result of activity some days behind the southwest limb. The background x-ray flux is at the class B3-B4 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on July 3-4. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 29 to July 1. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10005 2002.06.16 3 N13W84 0070 CSO only one spot observed, area approx. 0040 10008 2002.06.18 4 S10W56 0460 HKX only two spots observed 10010 2002.06.22 S13W79 plage 10011 2002.06.22 11 S11W19 0050 DSO still two separate regions observed 10012 2002.06.23 N21W48 plage 10013 2002.06.23 N04W59 plage 10014 2002.06.23 S18W15 plage spot count too high, 10015 2002.06.24 5 S26W16 0030 DAO area too large now spotless 10016 2002.06.25 6 S16E31 0100 CSO 10017 2002.06.27 5 S19E02 0020 CSO Total number of sunspots: 34 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 149.0 (1) 138.8 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]