Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 27, 2002 at 04:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 26. Solar wind speed ranged between 391 and 468 km/sec. Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 143.8, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour K indices: 3212 3322, Boulder K indices: 3220 2312). Region 10001 rotated quietly over the northwest limb. Region 10005 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10008 lost most of its remaining small spots and remained quiet. An isolated M class flare is possible. Region 10011 decayed significantly as the negative and positive polarity areas drifted apart. The region still has quite a few small spots but is likely to lose many of them today and tomorrow if the region continues to decay at the current rate. Region 10015 developed early in the day, then began to decay. Nearly all leading spots had disappeared by the end of the day. The positive and negative polarity areas drifted apart and the region will likely decay further. Region 10016 was quiet and stable. A new region emerged just north of region 10011 but for unknown reasons SEC/NOAA failed to notice that this was a new region and instead counted the spots as belonging to region 10011. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C class events was recorded on June 27. A C1.5 flare had its origin near the northeast limb at 06:30 UTC. A long duration C1.9 event peaking at 08:20 had its source just behind the northeast limb. The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 27-29. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10001 2002.06.14 1 N20W92 0070 HSX 10003 2002.06.15 S01W84 plage 10005 2002.06.16 2 N12W59 0080 DSO 10007 2002.06.18 N14W89 plage 10008 2002.06.18 11 S12W29 0540 DKO beta-gamma 10010 2002.06.22 S13W53 plage spot count too high, 10011 2002.06.22 19 S11E08 0060 DAI some spots belong to new region located north of region 10011 10012 2002.06.23 N21W22 plage 10013 2002.06.23 N04W33 plage 10014 2002.06.23 S18E11 plage 10015 2002.06.24 8 S26E12 0040 DSO 10016 2002.06.25 1 S15E57 0070 HSX Total number of sunspots: 42 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 149.8 (1) 132.1 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]