Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 26, 2002 at 04:00 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 25. Solar wind speed ranged between 422 and 503 km/sec. Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 144.7, the planetary A index was 11 (3-hour K indices: 3223 3323, Boulder K indices: 3223 3223). Region 10001 decayed slowly and will rotate over the northwest limb late today. Region 10005 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10008 lost some of its small spots but was otherwise mostly unchanged. The region is capable of M class flare production. Region 10011 developed slowly and quietly. Region 10012 was spotless early in the day, then reemerged with a few spots before once again decaying into spotless plage by the end of the day. Region 10013 decayed and was spotless by midnight. Region 10015 decayed early in the day, then began to develop slowly. New region 10016 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs No flaring was observed on June 25. The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 26-28. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 10001 2002.06.14 2 N20W75 0100 HSX 10003 2002.06.15 S01W71 plage 10005 2002.06.16 6 N11W44 0100 DSO 10007 2002.06.18 N14W76 plage 10008 2002.06.18 16 S11W15 0540 DKI beta-gamma 10010 2002.06.22 S13W40 plage 10011 2002.06.22 14 S12E23 0120 DAO 10012 2002.06.23 1 N21W09 0000 AXX now spotless 10013 2002.06.23 2 N04W20 0010 BXO now spotless 10014 2002.06.23 S18E37 plage 10015 2002.06.24 5 S27E26 0030 CSO 10016 2002.06.25 1 S15E71 0050 HSX Total number of sunspots: 47 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 150.1 (1) 128.7 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]