Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 25, 2002 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 24. Solar wind speed ranged between 425 and 524 km/sec under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 150.3, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour K indices: 3222 3332, Boulder K indices: 2122 2322). Region 10001 was quiet and stable. Region 10005 did not change much and could produce further C class flares. Region 10008 developed slowly with small spots emerging in several places around the huge main penumbra. The region is capable of M class flare production. Region 10010 decayed and was spotless by noon. Region 10011 developed slowly and quietly. Region 10012 decayed and was spotless early in the day. Region 10013 was quiet and stable. Region 10014 decayed and was spotless by noon. New region 10015 emerged in the southeast quadrant. Early on June 25 a spotted region is rotating into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs Only 1 C class event was recorded on June 24, a long duration C1.4 event peaking at 16:06 UTC and occurring in region 10005 (confirmed by LASCO images). The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 25-27. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 9997 2002.06.12 N10W84 plage 10000 2002.06.14 N18W82 plage 10001 2002.06.14 1 N20W61 0120 HSX 10003 2002.06.15 S01W58 plage 10005 2002.06.16 8 N14W29 0140 DSO 10007 2002.06.18 N14W63 plage 10008 2002.06.18 14 S10W01 0530 DKI beta-gamma 10010 2002.06.22 4 S13W27 0020 CSO now spotless 10011 2002.06.22 7 S12E35 0100 DAO 10012 2002.06.23 3 N19E08 0010 BXO now spotless 10013 2002.06.23 3 N04W07 0010 BXO 10014 2002.06.23 1 S18E50 0000 AXX now spotless 10015 2002.06.24 2 S27E39 0030 CRO Total number of sunspots: 43 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 150.3 (1) 124.5 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]