Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 23, 2002 at 05:00 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 22. Solar wind speed ranged between 357 and 458 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 142.0, the planetary A index was 9 (3-hour K indices: 1212 2333, Boulder K indices: 2122 2232). Region 10001 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 10005 developed slowly and was mostly quiet. Region 10008 was basically unchanged and quiet. The region could produce an M class flare. New region 10010 emerged in the southeast quadrant near the central meridian. New region 10011 emerged near the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs Only 1 C class event was recorded on June 22, a C2.0 flare in region 10005 at 02:36 UTC. A surprising long duration M1.6 event peaked at 02:55 UTC on June 23. Its origin appears to have been in a filament eruption in or near region 9997 not too far from the northwest limb. No significant CME has so far been observed in LASCO C2 images. The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level. Coronal holes A poorly defined coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on June 20 and could cause a minor geomagnetic disturbance on June 23. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 23 and quiet to unsettled on June 24-25. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9996 2002.06.12 S28W82 plage 9997 2002.06.12 N10W58 plage 10000 2002.06.14 N18W56 plage 10001 2002.06.14 2 N21W35 0160 HSX 10003 2002.06.15 S01W32 plage 10004 2002.06.15 S16W85 plage 10005 2002.06.16 17 N13E00 0170 DSO 10006 2002.06.18 S07W74 plage 10007 2002.06.18 N14W37 plage 10008 2002.06.18 25 S09E26 0470 DKI beta-gamma 10010 2002.06.22 4 S12E00 0020 CSO 10011 2002.06.22 4 S12E62 0050 DAO Total number of sunspots: 52 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 150.6 (1) 115.3 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]