Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 20, 2002 at 04:45 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on June 19. Solar wind speed ranged between 359 and 554 km/sec under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 145.8, the planetary A index was 16 (3-hour K indices: 4333 3334, Boulder K indices: 4332 2323). Region 9991 rotated over the southwest limb. Region 9992 was quiet and stable and is rotating over the southwest limb. Region 10000 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10001 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 10004 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10005 was quiet and stable. Region 10006 decayed and could become spotless before noon today. Region 10007 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10008 developed moderately quickly. Several spots emerged in the trailing magnetically positive area, some of them very close to the huge negative leader spot. M class flares are possible. Flares and CMEs One 1 C class event was observed on June 19. Region 9991 produced a C5.5 flare at 10:15 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes A poorly defined coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will be in a geoeffective position on June 20 and could cause a minor geomagnetic disturbance on June 23. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 20, quiet to unsettled on June 21-22 and quiet to active on June 23. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9991 2002.06.07 4 S22W85 0220 CHO 9992 2002.06.08 2 S18W80 0020 BXO 9994 2002.06.09 N10W71 plage 9996 2002.06.12 S28W43 plage 9997 2002.06.12 N10W19 plage 10000 2002.06.14 4 N18W15 0010 BXO 10001 2002.06.14 7 N20E06 0200 CSO 10002 2002.06.15 S24W60 plage 10003 2002.06.15 S01E07 plage 10004 2002.06.15 8 S16W44 0040 DSO 10005 2002.06.16 1 N12E37 0130 HSX 10006 2002.06.18 1 S07W38 0020 AXX 10007 2002.06.18 6 N13E04 0040 CSO 10008 2002.06.18 4 S10E65 0380 DKO Total number of sunspots: 37 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 152.0 (1) 104.0 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]