Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 19, 2002 at 04:30 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 18. Solar wind speed ranged between 318 and 381 km/sec. A coronal stream began to dominate the solar wind after 21h UTC. Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 142.9, the planetary A index was 11 (3-hour K indices: 2013 3333, Boulder K indices: 1012 3233). Region 9991 was quiet and stable and will rotate over the southwest limb on June 20. Region 9992 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9997 decayed and was spotless early on June 19. Region 10000 decayed and had only a few small spots left by the end of the day. The region could become spotless today. Region 10001 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10003 decayed and was spotless by early afternoon. Region 10004 developed early in the day, then began to decay slowly. Region 10005 developed slowly and quietly. New region 10006 emerged northeast of region 10004 in the southwest quadrant. New region 10007 emerged in the northeast quadrant. New region 10008 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs No flaring was observed on June 18. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on June 16 and could cause a minor geomagnetic disturbance on June 19-20. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 19-20. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 9991 2002.06.07 1 S21W72 0250 HHX 9992 2002.06.08 6 S17W64 0030 BXO 9994 2002.06.09 N10W58 plage 9996 2002.06.12 S28W30 plage 9997 2002.06.12 8 N10W06 0010 BXO now spotless 10000 2002.06.14 15 N16W01 0050 DSO 10001 2002.06.14 6 N20E20 0190 DSO 10002 2002.06.15 S24W47 plage 10003 2002.06.15 1 S01E20 0000 AXX now spotless 10004 2002.06.15 12 S15W31 0060 DSO 10005 2002.06.16 6 N12E53 0160 CSO 10006 2002.06.18 4 S08W23 0030 CRO 10007 2002.06.18 4 N12E17 0030 CSO 10008 2002.06.18 1 S11E75 0140 HAX Total number of sunspots: 64 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 152.3 (1) 99.8 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]