Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 17, 2002 at 04:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 16. Solar wind speed ranged between 335 and 429 km/sec. A weak disturbance began early in the day and was over by 22h UTC. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 136.7, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 2333 3223, Boulder K indices: 2323 3112). Region 9991 was mostly quiet and stable. Region 9992 decayed slowly and could become spotless today. Region 9997 was quiet and stable but could become spotless today or tomorrow. Region 9999 decayed and was spotless by late afternoon. Region 10000 decayed and lost nearly half of its penumbral coverage. Region 10001 decayed, particularly in the trailing spots section where most of the penumbral area disappeared. Region 10002 decayed into spotless plage. Region 10003 decayed and could become spotless later today. Region 10004 decayed slowly and quietly. New region 10005 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C class events were recorded on June 16. Region 9991 produced a C1.2 flare at 21:24 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B3-B4 level. Coronal holes A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on June 16 and could cause a minor geomagnetic disturbance on June 19. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 17-18 and quiet to active on June 19. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9991 2002.06.07 2 S21W47 0270 HKX 9992 2002.06.08 2 S18W32 0010 BXO 9994 2002.06.09 N10W32 plage 9995 2002.06.10 N12W80 plage 9996 2002.06.12 S28W04 plage 9997 2002.06.12 4 N13E16 0000 AXX 9999 2002.06.14 1 S05W87 0000 AXX 10000 2002.06.14 12 N18E24 0060 DSO 10001 2002.06.14 12 N20E46 0190 DAO 10002 2002.06.15 S24W21 plage 10003 2002.06.15 3 N00E49 0030 CSO 10004 2002.06.15 5 S15W04 0020 CAO 10005 2002.06.16 1 N13E74 0070 HSX Total number of sunspots: 42 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 153.5 (1) 90.1 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]