Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 15, 2002 at 03:30 UTC. Please note that no update will be posted on June 16. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to slightly unsettled on June 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 329 and 377 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 131.4 (which is the lowest recorded solar flux since August 2, 2001 when solar flux was measured at 120.8), the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 2112 2322, Boulder K indices: 2122 1212). Region 9987 decayed further and lost all trailing spots, the leader spot has rotated off the visible disk. Region 9991 decayed slowly and had only a single large spot left by midnight. Region 9992 decayed further and was spotless at the end of the day. Region 9997 reemerged during the early morning and was spotless again by late afternoon. Region 9998 was quiet and stable. New region 9999 emerged quickly in the southwest quadrant early in the day, then began to decay slowly. New region 10000 emerged in the northeast quadrant just northeast of region 9998 and is developing slowly. Magnetograms indicate that regions 10000 and 9998 could be classified as one region. New region 10001 rotated into view at the northeast limb. The region has become more complex since first appearing at the limb late on June 13. At this time only C flares are likely, but if the region continues to develop at the current rate, minor M class flares will become possible. Early on June 15 a couple of new regions are visible. One is located at the equator at the east limb, the other one is an emerging region in the southeast quadrant (near S15E20). Flares and CMEs A single C class event was recorded on June 14, it was an optically uncorrelated C1.3 flare at 10:20 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4-B5 level. Coronal holes A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on June 16 and could cause a minor geomagnetic disturbance on June 19. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 15-17. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 9986 2002.06.04 N03W58 plage 9987 2002.06.06 1 S16W86 0120 HAX 9990 2002.06.07 S23W73 plage 9991 2002.06.07 4 S21W21 0350 CKO 9992 2002.06.08 5 S18W03 0020 DSO now spotless 9993 2002.06.09 N06W87 plage 9994 2002.06.09 N10W06 plage 9995 2002.06.10 N12W54 plage 9996 2002.06.12 S28E22 plage 9997 2002.06.12 1 N09E46 0010 AXX now spotless 9998 2002.06.12 1 N14E47 0020 HSX 9999 2002.06.14 5 S05W61 0030 CAO 10000 2002.06.14 3 N18E50 0030 DSO 10001 2002.06.14 2 N20E70 0070 CSO Total number of sunspots: 22 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 156.0 (1) 81.2 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]