Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 14, 2002 at 04:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 332 and 386 km/sec. Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 133.4 (which is the lowest recorded solar flux since August 3, 2001), the planetary A index was 11 (3-hour K indices: 2323 3333, Boulder K indices: 2322 2222). Region 9985 rotated quietly over the northwest limb. Region 9987 decayed further and was quiet, the region will rotate over the southwest limb late today and early tomorrow. Region 9991 decayed slowly and at midnight had only a single small spot left outside of the large main penumbra. Region 9992 decayed quickly and could become spotless later today. Region 9993 decayed slowly and was spotless by midnight. Region 9995 decayed and was spotless by early morning, the region was still included in SEC/NOAA's spot summary with a larger area than one day earlier. Region 9996 decayed and was spotless by noon. Region 9997 decayed into spotless plage early in the day but was nevertheless observed by SEC/NOAA with a single spot. Region 9998 was quiet and stable. A new spotted region began to rotate into view at the northeast limb late in the day. Flares and CMEs No flares were observed on June 13. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on June 10-11 and could cause a minor disturbance to the geomagnetic field on June 13-14. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on June 16. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 14 due to a weak coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9981 2002.06.02 S20W78 plage 9982 2002.06.02 S04W71 plage 9983 2002.06.02 N25W76 plage 9985 2002.06.04 1 N18W95 0060 HSX 9986 2002.06.04 N03W45 plage 9987 2002.06.06 12 S15W71 0340 EHO 9990 2002.06.07 S23W60 plage 9991 2002.06.07 7 S20W09 0310 CHO 9992 2002.06.08 7 S18E08 0060 DAO area too large 9993 2002.06.09 2 N06W74 0010 HRX now spotless 9994 2002.06.09 N10E07 plage 9995 2002.06.10 4 N12W41 0020 BXO actually spotless 9996 2002.06.12 1 S28E35 0010 HRX now spotless 9997 2002.06.12 1 N09E59 0010 AXX actually spotless 9998 2002.06.12 1 N15E59 0010 AXX Total number of sunspots: 36 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 157.9 (1) 77.7 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]