Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 13, 2002 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 12. Solar wind speed ranged between 330 and 405 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 141.7 (which is the lowest solar flux since August 3, 2001), the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour K indices: 3213 3332, Boulder K indices: 3212 3212). Region 9985 decayed slowly and quietly and is rotating over the northwest limb. Region 9987 decayed slowly and remained quiet. There is still a chance of a minor M class flare. Region 9991 developed slowly and quietly. A minor M class flare is possible. Region 9992 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 9993 decayed slowly and could become spotless later today. Region 9995 developed slowly until noon, then decayed slowly and could become spotless later today or tomorrow. New region 9996 emerged in the southeast quadrant. New small regions 9997 and 9998 rotated into view at the northeast limb, both regions are located inside a large area with bright plage. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C class events were recorded on June 12. Region 9991 produced a C1.5 flare at 21:19 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on June 10-11 and could cause a minor disturbance to the geomagnetic field on June 13-14. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on June 16. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 13-14 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9979 2002.05.31 S29W80 plage 9981 2002.06.02 S20W65 plage 9982 2002.06.02 S04W58 plage 9983 2002.06.02 N25W63 plage 9984 2002.06.03 N20W89 plage area too large, 9985 2002.06.04 1 N18W78 0130 HSX 0080 is a better estimate 9986 2002.06.04 N03W32 plage 9987 2002.06.06 16 S15W56 0370 EKO beta-gamma 9990 2002.06.07 S23W47 plage 9991 2002.06.07 10 S22E04 0340 DHO 9992 2002.06.08 7 S20E21 0040 CSO 9993 2002.06.09 1 N06W59 0020 AXX 9994 2002.06.09 N10E20 plage 9995 2002.06.10 5 N10W27 0010 BXO 9996 2002.06.12 2 S27E46 0010 AXX 9997 2002.06.12 1 N08E73 0010 AXX 9998 2002.06.12 1 N15E74 0010 AXX Total number of sunspots: 44 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.1 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 159.9 (1) 73.6 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]