Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 12, 2002 at 04:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 338 and 427 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 147.8, the planetary A index was 12 (3-hour K indices: 3233 3333, Boulder K indices: 3322 2223). Region 9978 rotate quietly over the southwest limb. Region 9981 was spotless all day in all available images, yet SEC/NOAA managed to observe a single spot. Region 9985 decayed slowly and quietly, the region will rotate out of view on June 13. Region 9987 decayed substantially losing most of its trailing spots. A minor M class flare is still possible. Region 9991 developed slowly and quietly. Magnetic polarities are mixed and a minor M class flare is possible. Region 9992 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9993 was quiet and stable. Region 9994 was spotless all day in all available images, still SEC/NOAA reported a a two spot HSX group. Region 9995 first decayed and was spotless by noon, then reemerged and is developing slowly. Intense emissions at the northeast limb indicate the possible return of region 9957 today. Some spotless plage has already rotated into view. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C class events were recorded on June 11. Region 9987 produced a C1.1 flare at 10:05, a C1.2 flare at 11:06, a C1.2 flare at 11:49, a C1.6 flare at 12:23 and a C1.5 flare at 15:15 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on June 10-11 and could cause a minor disturbance to the geomagnetic field on June 13-14. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on June 16. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 12. A coronal stream will likely influence the field on June 13-14 causing unsettled to active conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9978 2002.05.31 1 S21W87 0050 HSX 9979 2002.05.31 S29W67 plage 9981 2002.06.02 1 S20W52 0010 AXX actually spotless 9982 2002.06.02 S04W45 plage 9983 2002.06.02 N25W50 plage 9984 2002.06.03 N20W76 plage 9985 2002.06.04 1 N18W65 0110 HSX 9986 2002.06.04 N03W19 plage 9987 2002.06.06 20 S15W43 0420 EKI beta-gamma 9989 2002.06.07 S35W83 plage 9990 2002.06.07 S23W34 plage 9991 2002.06.07 6 S22E17 0290 DHO beta-gamma 9992 2002.06.08 6 S20E34 0040 CSO 9993 2002.06.09 1 N06W46 0010 AXX 9994 2002.06.09 2 N10E33 0020 HSX actually spotless 9995 2002.06.10 3 N10W14 0010 BXO Total number of sunspots: 41 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.1 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 161.6 (1) 69.1 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]