Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 11, 2002 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 10. Solar wind speed ranged between 368 and 489 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 151.6, the planetary A index was 16 (3-hour K indices: 2234 4433, Boulder K indices: 2234 3433). Region 9973 rotated quietly over the southwest limb. Region 9978 decayed slowly and is about to rotate off the visible disk at the southwest limb. Region 9981 decayed slowly, no spots were observed early on June 11. Region 9982 reemerged with a few spots, then decayed and was spotless by early afternoon. The region may actually be reemerging again early on June 11. Region 9985 decayed further and had early on June 11 lost all spots except the large leading spot. Region 9987 developed slowly with increased penumbral area in the leading spots and some trailing spots, however, a few trailing and intermediate spots disappeared. Minor M class flaring is possible. Region 9990 decayed slowly and was spotless by late afternoon. Region 9991 was quiet and stable, some development was observed at the end of the day with small spots emerging south of the huge leader spot. A minor M class flare is possible. Region 9992 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9993 decayed and could become spotless later today or on June 12. Region 9994 decayed and is possibly spotless early on June 11. New region 9995 emerged in the northeast quadrant near the central meridian. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C class events were recorded on June 10, all were optically uncorrelated C1 flares. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on June 10-11 and could cause a minor disturbance to the geomagnetic field on June 13-14. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 11-12. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 9973 2002.05.28 1 S15W90 0120 HAX 9978 2002.05.31 1 S21W74 0080 HAX 9979 2002.05.31 S29W54 plage 9981 2002.06.02 1 S20W38 0010 HSX 9982 2002.06.02 3 S04W32 0020 CSO 9983 2002.06.02 N25W37 plage 9984 2002.06.03 N20W63 plage 9985 2002.06.04 9 N18W51 0170 DAO 9986 2002.06.04 N03W06 plage 9987 2002.06.06 27 S15W29 0380 EKI beta-gamma 9988 2002.06.06 S14W48 plage 9989 2002.06.07 S35W70 plage 9990 2002.06.07 1 S23W21 0010 AXX now spotless 9991 2002.06.07 1 S22E30 0270 HHX 9992 2002.06.08 5 S20E47 0050 CSO 9993 2002.06.09 3 N06W33 0030 CSO 9994 2002.06.09 2 N10E46 0020 HSX 9995 2002.06.10 3 N10W01 0020 CSO Total number of sunspots: 57 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.1 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 163.0 (1) 64.7 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]