Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 9, 2002 at 04:40 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 276 and 422 km/sec. A fairly weak solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 10:50 UTC with a sudden increase in wind speed from 280 to 330 km/sec. The interplanetary magnetic field was after the shock weakly to moderately southwards and this caused unsettled to active conditions for the remainder of the day. The source of the disturbance was a CME observed on June 5. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 155.2, the planetary A index was 15 (3-hour K indices: 2113 4434, Boulder K indices: 1113 4433). Region 9973 decayed further and had only a few small spots left outside of the main penumbra at the end of the day. Region 9975 decayed and the only remaining small spot will likely disappear today as the region rotates to the northwest limb. Region 9978 continued to decay quickly and has only a few small spots remaining outside of the main penumbra. Region 9981 decayed losing more than half of its penumbral area, the region could become spotless tomorrow. Region 9983 decayed further and was spotless by midnight. Region 9985 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 9986 decayed and lost most of its penumbral area, the region will likely become spotless today. Region 9987 continued to develop at a moderate pace and is currently the largest region on the visible disk. Some minor intermixing of magnetic polarities is evident, but overall the region is still fairly simple with a wide separation between the strongest positive and negative polarity areas. The possibility of a minor M class flare is slowly increasing. Region 9989 decayed quickly and was spotless by midnight. Region 9990 decayed slowly and could become spotless today. Region 9991 was quiet and stable. The large penumbra contains both polarities and may be capable of minor M class flaring. New region 9992 rotated into view at the southeast limb. The region is unimpressive and could soon become spotless. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C class events were recorded on June 8. Region 9975 produced a C1.1 flare at 08:55 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B3-B4 level. Coronal holes A well placed coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on June 6-7 and could cause unsettled to active conditions on June 9-10. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 9-10 and quiet to unsettled on June 11-12. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9972 2002.05.28 S21W88 plage area too large, 9973 2002.05.28 4 S15W69 0220 DAO 0130 is more realistic 9974 2002.05.29 N14W74 plage 9975 2002.05.29 1 N22W71 0030 HSX area 0010 at midnight 9978 2002.05.31 6 S21W47 0120 DSO 9979 2002.05.31 S29W28 plage 9980 2002.06.01 S26W83 plage 9981 2002.06.02 1 S21W11 0030 HSX 9982 2002.06.02 S04W05 plage 9983 2002.06.02 1 N25W11 0010 AXX now spotless 9984 2002.06.03 N20W37 plage 9985 2002.06.04 13 N18W24 0210 DAI 9986 2002.06.04 3 N03E18 0020 CSO 9987 2002.06.06 25 S15W02 0210 EAI area approximately 0300 by midnight 9988 2002.06.06 S14W22 plage 9989 2002.06.07 1 S35W44 0010 AXX now spotless 9990 2002.06.07 4 S23E06 0020 BXO 9991 2002.06.07 1 S21E57 0250 HHX 9992 2002.06.08 1 S20E74 0010 AXX Total number of sunspots: 61 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.1 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 165.1 (1) 52.8 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]