Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 7, 2002 at 03:35 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 315 and 404 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 154.5, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour K indices: 2223 3333, Boulder K indices: 2122 1113). Region 9973 decayed quickly and at the end of the day had a penumbral area only slightly larger than that of region 9985. Many small spots disappeared during the latter half of the day. Region 9975 decayed slowly and had lost all its small spots by midnight. Region 9978 decayed further, particularly in the trailing spots section. Region 9979 decayed and could become spotless today. Regions 9981 and 9983 were quiet and stable. Region 9982 decayed and was spotless by the end of the day. Region 9985 was quiet. Several new spots emerged between the two major penumbrae during the latter half of the day. Region 9986 was quiet and stable. New region 9987 emerged in the southeast quadrant south of region 9982 and has developed fairly quickly. New region 9988 emerged in the southeast quadrant near the central meridian. SEC/NOAA failed to number a new region which emerged in the southwest quadrant (and was located near S34W10 at midnight). Late in the day a fairly large penumbra began to rotate into view at the southeast limb. Magnetograms indicate that there is a dominant positive polarity area with a weaker negative area ahead of it. Flares and CMEs Only 1 C class event was recorded on June 6. Region 9975 produced a C2.0/1F flare at 17:03 UTC. A fairly narrow CME was observed off the northeast limb, first in a LASCO C2 image image at 18:30 UTC (see difference images at 18:30 and at 19:31 UTC) and could even be studied in an EIT 304 image at 19:19 UTC. A LASCO C3 image at 23:42 UTC shows the development of the CME during the first few hours after the initial ejection). The CME had a backside source. June 5: A filament eruption began east of region 9979 some minutes before 08h UTC and triggered a long duration C3.4 event peaking at 09:43 UTC. A full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images (with the first image after the weekend break at 12:18 UTC) with most of the ejected material seen below the southern hemisphere limbs and the south pole. The CME will likely impact Earth, probably sometime between 18h UTC on June 7 and noon on June 8. The disturbance is not expected to be strong, unsettled to minor geomagnetic storming is likely. The background x-ray flux is at the class B3-B4 level. Coronal holes A well placed coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on June 6-7 and could cause unsettled to active conditions on June 9-10. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled most of June 7. Late on June 7 or sometime during the first half of June 8 a CME impact is expected and this could cause the field to become unsettled to minor storm. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9969 2002.05.25 N09W87 plage 9972 2002.05.28 S21W62 plage 9973 2002.05.28 15 S15W43 0390 EKC beta-gamma area too large 9974 2002.05.29 N14W48 plage 9975 2002.05.29 6 N22W45 0060 CAO 9978 2002.05.31 14 S21W20 0180 DAO 9979 2002.05.31 7 S29W02 0030 CAO 9980 2002.06.01 S26W57 plage 9981 2002.06.02 1 S22E17 0040 HSX 9982 2002.06.02 6 S04E21 0010 BXO now spotless 9983 2002.06.02 1 N24E17 0020 HSX 9984 2002.06.03 N20W24 plage 9985 2002.06.04 12 N17E02 0170 DAO too few spots 9986 2002.06.04 2 N03E44 0050 HAX 9987 2002.06.06 10 S16E24 0020 BXO area too small, classification wrong 9988 2002.06.06 6 S14E04 0010 BXO Total number of sunspots: 80 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.1 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 167.9 (1) 40.5 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]