Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 6, 2002 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 368 and 443 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 159.0, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour K indices: 3222 3322, Boulder K indices: 4212 1122). Region 9970 decayed and was spotless by the end of the day. Region 9973 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9974 decayed slowly and could become spotless today. Region 9975 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9978 decayed and lost most of the spots between the two major penumbrae. Region 9979 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 9980 decayed quietly and appears to be spotless early on June 6. Region 9981 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9982 and 9983. Region 9984 reemerged briefly with a few spots. Region 9985 did not change significantly and was quiet. Region 9986 was quiet and stable. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C class events were recorded on June 5. Region 9978 produced a C1.4 flare at 22:38 UTC. A filament eruption occurred just east of region 9979 and was the source of a long duration C3.4 event peaking at 09:43 UTC. A full halo CME was observed soon after with most of the ejected material seen below the southern hemisphere limbs and the south pole. The CME will impact Earth, most likely sometime between 18h UTC on June 7 and noon on June 8. The disturbance is not likely to be strong, unsettled to minor geomagnetic storming is expected. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes A well placed coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on June 6-7 and could cause unsettled to active conditions on June 9-10. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 6-7. Late on June 7 or sometime during the first half of June 8 a CME impact is expected and this could cause the field to become unsettled to minor storm. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9969 2002.05.25 N09W74 plage area too large, 9970 2002.05.26 2 N06W80 0040 DSO was 0010. now spotless 9972 2002.05.28 S21W49 plage 9973 2002.05.28 27 S16W29 0390 EKC 9974 2002.05.29 1 N14W35 0010 AXX 9975 2002.05.29 10 N22W32 0060 CAO 9976 2002.05.30 S10W79 plage 9978 2002.05.31 17 S20W06 0260 DAI 9979 2002.05.31 7 S30E11 0040 CSO 9980 2002.06.01 1 S26W44 0010 HSX now spotless? 9981 2002.06.02 1 S22E30 0080 HSX 9982 2002.06.02 3 S04E37 0020 CSO 9983 2002.06.02 1 N24E30 0030 HSX 9984 2002.06.03 2 N20W11 0010 AXX now spotless 9985 2002.06.04 15 N18E17 0190 DAO 9986 2002.06.04 1 N04E58 0050 HAX Total number of sunspots: 88 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.1 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 170.6 (1) 34.1 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]