Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 5, 2002 at 03:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on June 4. Solar wind speed ranged between 394 and 471 km/sec under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 169.8, the planetary A index was 17 (3-hour K indices: 3343 4333, Boulder K indices: 3442 3323). Region 9970 decayed further and was quiet, the region could become spotless before rotating over the northwest limb on June 6. Region 9972 reemerged with a single small spot. Region 9973 decayed further and was quiet. A minor M class flare may still be possible. Region 9974 was quiet and stable. Region 9975 developed slowly and is currently a reversed polarity region. Further C class flaring is possible. Region 9978 decayed early in the day, then the positive polarity area began to strengthen and move closer to the negative polarity area. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9979 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9980 developed several small spots and was quiet. Region 9981 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9982 and 9983. New region 9985, having emerged late on June 3, developed quickly early in the day and slowly later on. New region 9986 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were recorded on June 4. Region 9975 produced a C1.9 flare at 12:54 and a C1.0 flare at 18:10 UTC. Region 9978 generated a C2.1 flare at 16:14 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes A well placed coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on June 6-7 and could cause unsettled to active conditions on June 9-10. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 5-7. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9969 2002.05.25 N09W61 plage 9970 2002.05.26 3 N06W67 0040 CSO area should be 0020 9972 2002.05.28 1 S21W36 0000 AXX 9973 2002.05.28 32 S16W16 0430 ESI beta-gamma 9974 2002.05.29 2 N14W23 0010 HRX 9975 2002.05.29 8 N21W20 0050 DSO 9976 2002.05.30 S10W66 plage 9978 2002.05.31 14 S20E07 0210 DAO 9979 2002.05.31 6 S29E24 0040 CSO 9980 2002.06.01 5 S26W33 0020 CSO 9981 2002.06.02 1 S22E43 0040 HSX 9982 2002.06.02 2 S04E49 0010 HRX 9983 2002.06.02 1 N23E43 0030 HSX 9984 2002.06.03 N19E00 plage 9985 2002.06.04 11 N17E29 0090 DAO 9986 2002.06.04 1 N03E72 0060 HAX Total number of sunspots: 87 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.1 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 173.5 (1) 26.9 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]