Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update June 3, 2002 at 04:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 347 and 435 km/sec under the influence of a weak coronal stream. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 174.9, the planetary A index was 16 (3-hour K indices: 4323 3434, Boulder K indices: 4323 3433). Region 9970 decayed slowly and quietly, as did region 9972. Region 9973 did not change much and remains capable of producing M class flares, perhaps even a major flare. Regions 9974 and 9975 were mostly quiet and stable, both could become spotless within a couple of days. Region 9977 developed a magnetic delta structure and may be capable of producing a minor M class flare. Region 9978 continued to develop quickly and at midnight was observed with a weak magnetic delta structure. Further development could lead to M class flares. Region 9979 decayed fairly quickly in the leading spots section and lost its magnetic delta structure. Unless new flux emerges the region is unlikely to produce other than C class flares. Region 9980 was quiet and stable. New regions 9981 and 9982 rotated into view at the southeast limb while new region 9983 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 9 C and 1 M class events were recorded on June 2. Region 9977 produced a C4.1 flare at 04:37, a C8.0 flare at 10:15 UTC, a C2.3 flare at 19:04 and a C1.7 flare at 20:28 UTC. The C8 event was associated with weak type II and IV radio sweeps. Region 9973 generated a C9.4 flare at 11:47 and a C3.3 flare at 16:57 UTC. Region 9975 was the source of a C1.4 flare at 16:05 UTC. Region 9979 produced an M1.1/1F flare at 20:44 UTC, the event was associated with a weak type II radio sweep. June 1: Region 9973 produced an impulsive M1.5/1N flare at 03:57 UTC. This event was accompanied by moderately strong type II and IV radio sweeps. As no new LASCO C2 or C3 images have become available since very early on June 1, it is difficult to tell if the CME produced by the flare is geoeffective. LASCO EIT images indicate a fairly narrow CME heading southeastwards (no EIT wave or dimming was observed), but it is possible that some parts of the CME could reach Earth on June 4. Another event with its origin in region 9973 was an impulsive C5.1 flare at 23:49 UTC. A weak type II and a moderate type IV sweep were recorded and it is likely that a geoeffective CME was associated with this event. In that case the CME is likely to reach Earth on June 4. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 3 and quiet to active or minor storm on June 4-5. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9965 2002.05.22 S07W88 plage 9969 2002.05.25 N09W35 plage 9970 2002.05.26 2 N06W40 0030 DSO 9971 2002.05.28 N21W65 plage 9972 2002.05.28 4 S20W11 0030 DSO 9973 2002.05.28 27 S17E10 0720 EKI beta-gamma 9974 2002.05.29 2 N18E06 0010 HRX 9975 2002.05.29 2 N22E06 0020 CSO 9976 2002.05.30 S10W40 plage 9977 2002.05.31 8 S21W67 0090 DSO beta-gamma-delta 9978 2002.05.31 10 S19E34 0130 DAO area too small beta-gamma-delta 9979 2002.05.31 9 S30E50 0070 DSO 9980 2002.06.01 1 S29W05 0010 HSX 9981 2002.06.02 1 S22E70 0050 HAX 9982 2002.06.02 1 S03E74 0000 AXX area too small 9983 2002.06.02 2 N24E72 0050 CAO area too large Total number of sunspots: 69 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (115.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (113.8 predicted, -1.3) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (112.9 predicted, -0.9) 2002.03 179.5 98.1 (108.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.5 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.1 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 176.9 (1) 12.7 (2) (93.5 predicted, -4.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]