Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update May 15, 2002 at 04:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update May 3, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update May 3, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update May 3, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was active to major storm on May 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 391 and 529 km/sec, apparently under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 160.7, the planetary A index was 32 (3-hour K indices: 4564 4444, Boulder K indices: 4554 3433). Region 9934 rotated over the southwest limb. Region 9937 decayed further and was spotless by the end of the day. Region 9940 was spotless all day in all available images, yet SEC/NOAA managed to observe a single spot. Region 9945 developed several new spots. A weak magnetic delta structure can currently be observed in a trailing penumbra. An M class flare is possible. Region 9946 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 9948 was mostly unchanged with only a small decrease in the area of the trailing spot penumbra noted. An M class flare is possible. Region 9949 decayed further and was spotless by early evening. Region 9950 decayed quickly and could become spotless within a couple of days. Region 9951 was quiet and stable. SEC/NOAA failed to number a new region which began rotating into view at the southeast limb during the morning. Early on May 15 another spotted region is visible at the southeast limb, further north than the other unnumbered region. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were recorded on May 14. Region 9948 produced a C3.2 flare at 09:48 UTC. The remainder of the flares were optically uncorrelated. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on May 15 and quiet to unsettled on May 16-17. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9934 2002.05.01 2 S15W98 0060 CSO 9937 2002.05.03 4 S07W77 0030 DRO now spotless 9938 2002.05.03 S06W73 plage 9940 2002.05.04 1 N19W67 0010 AXX actually spotless 9942 2002.05.05 N21W81 plage 9943 2002.05.05 S10W55 plage 9944 2002.05.07 N08W56 plage 9945 2002.05.07 13 S04W26 0270 DAO beta-gamma-delta 9946 2002.05.08 2 S06W17 0010 AXX now spotless 9948 2002.05.10 6 S22E26 0410 EKO 9949 2002.05.11 2 S16W47 0010 BXO now spotless 9950 2002.05.11 12 S05E04 0060 DSO 9951 2002.05.12 2 N11E41 0020 HSX 9952 2002.05.13 S15W35 plage Total number of sunspots: 44 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.5 (+2.7) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (114.7 predicted, +0.7) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (112.5 predicted, -2.2) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (109.8 predicted, -2.7) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (108.4 predicted, -1.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.1 (104.2 predicted, -4.2) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (98.3 predicted, -3.9) 2002.05 180.7 (1) 100.1 (2) (93.8 predicted, -4.5) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]