Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update May 9, 2002 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update May 3, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update May 3, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update May 3, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on May 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 335 and 424 km/sec.. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 186.6, the planetary A index was 11 (3-hour K indices: 3332 3332, Boulder K indices: 2332 1312). Region 9927 reemerged with a few spots, then quickly decayed and was spotless by early afternoon. Region 9928 decayed and was spotless by late afternoon. Region 9931 decayed slowly and is rotating over the northwest limb. Region 9932 decayed further and was quiet. Region 9933 was quiet and stable. Region 9934 in magnetograms still appears to be two separate regions. The one in the north with a huge penumbra decayed slightly. The southern group developed early in the day, then stabilized and later lost several small spots. An M class flare is possible. Region 9935 reemerged with a few tiny spots and could soon become spotless again. Region 9936 decayed further and could become spotless today. Region 9937 decayed further and was quiet. Region 9938 was quiet and stable. Regions 9939 and 9940 merged to a single region on May 7 (this is the conclusion of the observer at the Mt.Wilson observatory as well), however, this region is still considered by SEC/NOAA as being two separate regions. No significant changes were observed on May 8. Region 9941 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9942 was spotless early in the day, then reemerged with a few small spots. Region 9943 once again reemerged with a few spots. Region 9944 was quiet and stable. Region 9945 was quiet and stable. New region 9946 was numbered by SEC/NOAA. This region is near the southeast limb, however, magnetograms indicate that it is part of region 9945. Even the observer at the Mt.Wilson observatory agreed with that conclusion. The region has a magnetic delta configuration in its trailing spots. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C class events were recorded on May 8. Region 9940 produced a C1.0 flare at 06:28 UTC. Region 9934 was the source of a C1.1 flare at 17:08 and a long duration C4.2 event peaking at 13:27 UTC. A faint halo CME was observed in association with the LDE. This CME was first observed in LASCO C2 images at 13:50 UTC off the southwest limb and soon became a full halo CME. The CME was fairly slow and is not expected to reach the Earth until May 11. May 7: Region 9937 produced an M1.4 flare at 03:46 UTC. A moderate type IV radio sweep was associated with this event, as was a faint full halo CME which was first observed in LASCO C3 images at 05:18 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active or possibly minor storm on May 8 following a likely CME impact. Quiet to active is likely on May 10-12. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9927 2002.04.29 2 S23W34 0030 DSO now spotless 9928 2002.04.29 1 N19W45 0010 HRX now spotless 9931 2002.05.01 1 N15W79 0060 HSX area too large 9932 2002.05.01 2 S27W33 0030 HAX 9933 2002.05.01 1 N18W28 0080 HSX 9934 2002.05.01 18 S16W19 0540 EKI two separate beta regions? wrong location, 9935 2002.05.02 1 S17W41 0010 AXX should have been S19W49 9936 2002.05.02 1 S16W41 0010 AXX 9937 2002.05.03 9 S08E02 0150 DAO 9938 2002.05.03 2 S05E05 0020 HAX has actually 9939 2002.05.04 2 N16E14 0020 HAX merged with region 9940 has actually 9940 2002.05.04 11 N15E15 0050 DSO merged with region 9939 9941 2002.05.05 4 S22W31 0030 DAO 9942 2002.05.05 2 N21W03 0010 BXO now spotless 9943 2002.05.05 5 S10E24 0020 BXO 9944 2002.05.07 2 N08E22 0010 AXX 9945 2002.05.07 2 S05E53 0290 HKX currently part of 9946 2002.05.08 3 S08E65 0070 DAO region 9945 beta-gamma-delta Total number of sunspots: 69 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.5 (+2.7) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (114.7 predicted, +0.7) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (112.5 predicted, -2.2) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (109.8 predicted, -2.7) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (108.4 predicted, -1.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.1 (104.2 predicted, -4.2) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (98.3 predicted, -3.9) 2002.05 180.5 (1) 60.5 (2) (93.8 predicted, -4.5) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]