Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update May 8, 2002 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update May 3, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update May 3, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update May 3, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on May 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 347 and 412 km/sec.. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 186.8, the planetary A index was 11 (3-hour K indices: 3123 3333, Boulder K indices: 3112 2322). Region 9928 decayed and could become spotless today, only one small spot is visible early on May 8. Region 9929 is rotating quietly over the northwest limb. Region 9931 was quiet and stable. Region 9932 decayed slowly quietly. Region 9933 was quiet and stable. Region 9934 decayed slightly losing most of the trailing spots, however, some penumbral growth was observed south of the southern large penumbra. The region has over the last couple of days split into two separate regions (easily seen in magnetograms). Region 9936 decayed further and only a single small spot was visible early on May 8. Region 9937 decayed slowly and is not very likely to repeat the minor M class flare observed early on May 7. Region 9938 decayed slowly and quietly. Regions 9939 and 9940 have merged to a single region, this region is developing slowly. Region 9941 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9942 decayed and appears to be spotless early on May 8. Region 9943 reemerged with a few spots, then decayed quickly again and was spotless by the end of the day. New region 9944 emerged in the northeast quadrant on May 6 (but was not noticed by SEC/NOAA then), and has decayed since noon on May 7. Early on May 8 only a single small spot is visible and the region could soon become spotless. New region 9945 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Spots which could be part of this region are currently rotating into view to the southeast of the large penumbra. These spots could be another separate region but magnetograms indicate that the positive magnetic areas are linked. Another new region, which was noticed early on May 7 due east of region 9933, has not yet caught the attention of SEC/NOAA. The region will hopefully be numbered today. Flares and CMEs A total of 4 C and 1 M class events were recorded on May 7. Region 9937 produced an M1.4 flare at 03:46 UTC. A moderate type IV radio sweep was associated with this event, as was a faint full halo CME which was first observed in LASCO C3 images at 05:18 UTC. Region 9943 produced a C1.1 flare at 18:48 UTC. Region 9935 was the source of a C1.6 flare at 22:45 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on May 8. A CME associated with the M1 flare in region 9937 early on May 7 could reach the Earth on May 9 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9927 2002.04.29 S28W39 plage 9928 2002.04.29 4 N19W32 0030 CSO 9929 2002.04.30 1 N23W81 0090 HAX 9931 2002.05.01 1 N15W66 0030 HSX 9932 2002.05.01 5 S27W20 0050 ESO classification wrong, should be CAO 9933 2002.05.01 1 N18W15 0070 HSX 9934 2002.05.01 21 S17W06 0510 EKI two separate beta regions? 9935 2002.05.02 S19W36 plage 9936 2002.05.02 1 S16W28 0020 HSX 9937 2002.05.03 8 S09E15 0120 DAO 9938 2002.05.03 1 S05E18 0020 HSX 9939 2002.05.04 1 N16E27 0020 HSX merging with region 9940 9940 2002.05.04 1 N15E28 0020 HSX merging with region 9939 9941 2002.05.05 3 S22W18 0020 CSO 9942 2002.05.05 2 N21E10 0010 AXX 9943 2002.05.05 3 S10E37 0030 CSO now spotless 9944 2002.05.07 3 N08E35 0040 CRO 9945 2002.05.07 1 S05E66 0240 HKX Total number of sunspots: 57 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.5 (+2.7) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.6 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (114.7 predicted, +0.7) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 (112.5 predicted, -2.2) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (109.8 predicted, -2.7) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (108.4 predicted, -1.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.1 (104.2 predicted, -4.2) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (98.3 predicted, -3.9) 2002.05 179.7 (1) 52.5 (2) (93.8 predicted, -4.5) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]