:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 May 07 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 April - 05 May 2002

Solar activity was at low levels during most of the period. However,
activity increased to moderate levels on 30 April due to a low-level
M-class flare, apparently from a source beyond the southeast limb
(for flare specifics, please refer to the Energetic Events or
Optical Flares lists). A large CME was observed early on 01 May from
a source beyond the southwest limb and was associated with a greater
than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement (see the discussion below). The
main sunspot group of interest during the period was Region 9934
(S18, L = 211, class/area Eki/580 on 03 May), which rotated into
view on 01 May and produced C-class flares during the rest of the
period. It showed little change in terms of size and structure, but
possessed a delta magnetic configuration within its southern-most
cluster of spots. Another event of interest was a long-duration
C6/Sf flare at 02/2133 UTC from Region 9926 (N14, L = 312,
class/area Dao/080 on 02 May) associated with a Type II radio sweep.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period. Solar wind
velocities were elevated during 02 May with peak “gusts” in the 500
to 520 km/sec range, possibly due to weak coronal hole effects.
There were no significant disturbances during the rest of the
period.

There was a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement (peak about
9.0 pfu) on 01 May following a large CME from beyond the southwest
limb. The enhancement ended early on 02 May.

Greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit were at
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 May - 03 June 2002

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the
period. Isolated low-level M-class flares are likely during the
period.

No proton events are expected.

Greater than 2 MeV flux levels are expected to be at normal to
moderate levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels during most of the period. However, active conditions will be
possible during 9-10 May due to a CME passage (a halo-CME occurred
early on 07 May).


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