:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 Mar 19 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 - 17 March 2002

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Activity was low on 11
March with isolated, optically uncorrelated C-class X-ray flares.
Activity increased to moderate levels on 12 March due to an M1 X-ray
flare at 12/2313 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep,
apparently from a source beyond the east limb. A long-duration
C-class X-ray flare associated with a Type IV radio sweep occurred
earlier on 12 March, also from a source beyond the east limb.
Activity remained moderate on 13 March as Region 9871 (S20, L = 138,
class/area Eso/330 on 17 March) produced an M1/Sf flare at 13/2335
UTC accompanied by a Type II radio sweep. Region 9871 was a
moderate-sized sunspot group with minor magnetic complexity. It
showed gradual growth during the latter half of the period. Activity
rose to high levels on 14 March by virtue of an M5/2b flare at
14/0150 UTC associated with a Type IV radio sweep from Region 9866
(S10, L = 191, class/area Eki/900 on 12 March). Region 9866 was the
largest and most complex of the visible regions during the period.
It gradually increased in size and magnetic complexity through 14
March, having developed a strong, persistent delta magnetic
configuration within its trailer spots. The region began to
gradually decay on 15 March, but remained magnetically complex.
Activity decreased to moderate levels on 15 March due to a
long-duration M2/1f flare at 15/2310 UTC from Region 9866. Activity
decreased to low levels on 16 March with C-class subflares from
Regions 9866 and 9871. Activity returned to moderate levels on the
final day of the period with an M4/Sf flare at 17/1931 UTC from
Region 9871.

Solar wind data were available from NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period. There were
no significant disturbances observed in the solar wind flow.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at
17/0820 UTC following flare activity in Region 9866. The event
peaked at 13 pfu at 17/0850 UTC, then ended at 17/1230 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit
ranged from normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 March - 15 April 2002

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated,
low-level M-class flares are likely during the period. There is a
slight chance for an isolated major flare during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels during most of the
period. However, high flux levels will be possible during 04 – 05
April.

There will be a slight chance for an isolated proton flare during the
period.

Active to minor storm conditions are expected during 20 March.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected during 21 – 22 March and
again during 02 – 03 April. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected during the rest of the period.


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