:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 Mar 12 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 10 March 2002

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels during the
period. Activity was mostly low during 04 – 08 March with isolated
to occasional C-class flares. Region 9845 (N17, L = 013, class/area
Fai/430 on 05 March) was a source for some of the C-class flares and
was one of the regions of interest by virtue of its moderate size
and magnetic complexity. It crossed the west limb on 07 March.
Activity increased to moderate levels during 09 – 10 March due to
three long-duration, low-level M-class flares (for flare specifics,
please refer to the Energetic Events or Optical Flare lists). Region
9866 
(S10, L = 190, class/area Eki/840 on 10 March) produced two
of these as it rotated into view on 09 March (the third flare was
optically unassociated). Region 9866 was large, magnetically
complex, and in a gradual growth phase at the close of the period.

Solar wind data were available from NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period. A
high-speed solar wind stream was observed during 04 – 07 March. This
stream was likely associated with a recurrent positive-polarity
coronal hole. Solar wind velocities gradually increased during 04 -
05 March and reached a peak wind speed of around 740 km/sec early on
05 March. The high-speed stream subsided early on 08 March. There
were some periods of sustained southward IMF Bz detected on 10 March
(roughly 10/0900 – 1300 UTC) with peak southward deflections to
minus 06 nT (GSM).

There were no proton events at geo-synchronous orbit during the
period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit
ranged from normal to high levels. High electron flux levels
occurred on 07 March.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during 04
March. Activity increased to quiet to active levels during 05 – 07
due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Field activity decreased to
quiet to unsettled levels during 08 – 09 March. Activity increased
to quiet to active levels on 10 March associated with a period of
sustained southward IMF Bz.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 March - 08 April 2002

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated,
low-level M-class flares are possible throughout the forecast
period.

Greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes are expected to be at normal to
moderate levels during most of the period. However, high flux levels
will be possible around 04 – 05 April.

There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels during most of the period. However, active conditions will be
possible during 02 – 03 April.


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