Solar Terrestrial Activity ReportSolar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update March 15, 2002 at 04:50 UTC. 
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 4, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 4, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 4, 
2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 
2002)]
Recent development
The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 357 
and 448 km/sec.
Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 180.7, the planetary A index was 4 
(3-hour K indices: 2122 2221, Boulder K indices: 2122 2320). Region 9856 decayed 
slowly and was quiet, the region will rotate over the southwest limb on March 
16. Region 9859 was spotless all day in all available images, SEC/NOAA claimed 
the region had two spots. Region 9860 reemerged with a spot. Region 9864 decayed 
slowly and quietly. Region 9866 was again mostly unchanged and remains capable 
of producing M class flares. Region 9868 decayed late in the day with only two 
or three spots remaining by midnight. Region 9869 was spotless all day in all 
available images, yet SEC/NOAA managed to observe one spot. Region 9870 lost its 
trailing penumbra but developed a new penumbra north of the main penumbra. 
Region 9871 was unchanged and could produce occasional M class flares.
Flares and CMEs
A total of 2 C and 1 M class events were recorded on March 14. Region 9866 
produced a major flare, an M5.7/2B flare at 01:50 UTC. A weak type IV radio 
sweep was recorded but there was no obvious CME associated with this event. 
Region 9871 generated a C4.9/1F flare at 16:53 UTC.
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
Coronal holes
No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 15-17. Long 
distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and 
upper middle latitudes is fair.
      Coronal holes (1)Coronal mass ejections (2)M and X class flares (3)


1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Active solar regions (Recent map)
      Solar regionDate numberedActual no. sunspotsLocation at 
      midnightAreaClassificationComment
      98562002.03.033S04W720100HAX 
      98592002.03.042S11W790010AXXactually spotless
      98602002.03.051S06W550010AXX
      98612002.03.05 N08W51  plage
      98642002.03.075N18W200050CSO 
      98652002.03.08 N13W11  plage
      98662002.03.0836S10E070820EKIbeta-gamma-delta
      98672002.03.11 S31W22  plage
      98682002.03.1111N19W060020CSO 
      98692002.03.111N23E000010AXXactually spotless
      98702002.03.116S20E240120CAO
      98712002.03.137S20E580210EAO
      Total number of sunspots:72

Monthly solar data
      MonthAverage solar fluxInternational sunspot numberSmoothed sunspot number
      2000.04184.2125.5120.8
      cycle 23 sunspot max. 
      2000.07202.3170.1119.8
      2001.01166.695.6108.7 (-3.3)
      2001.02146.680.6104.1 (-4.6)
      2001.03177.7113.5104.8 (+0.7)
      2001.04177.7107.7107.6 (+2.8)
      2001.05147.196.6108.7 (+1.1)
      2001.06173.0134.0109.8 (+1.1)
      2001.07131.382.2111.7 (+1.9)
      2001.08162.9106.8113.6 (+1.8)
      2001.09233.2 150.7(113.7 predicted, +0.1)
      2001.10207.6125.6(111.7 predicted, -2.0)
      2001.11210.6106.5(110.2 predicted, -1.5)
      2001.12235.1131.8(106.9 predicted, -3.3)
      2002.01226.6113.9(103.3 predicted, -3.6)
      2002.02205.0108.0(101.9 predicted, -1.4)
      2002.03180.8 (1) 69.2 (2)(97.6 predicted, -4.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. 
The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own 
observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar 
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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