Solar Terrestrial Activity ReportSolar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update March 14, 2002 at 04:00 UTC. 
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 4, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 4, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 4, 
2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 
2002)]
Recent development
The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 396 
and 463 km/sec.
Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 184.3, the planetary A index 
was 5 (3-hour K indices: 2122 2221, Boulder K indices: 2122 2320). Region 9856 
was quiet and stable. Region 9859 decayed and was spotless by the end of the 
day. Region 9864 was quiet and stable. Region 9865 decayed and was spotless by 
noon. Region 9866 did not change much and remains capable of producing M class 
flares. Region 9868 was quiet and stable. Region 9869 decayed and was spotless 
by early afternoon. Region 9870 was mostly unchanged and quiet. New region 9871 
rotated into view at the southeast limb. The region doesn't appear to be complex 
in magnetograms, but still appears to be capable of producing M class flares.
Flares and CMEs
A total of 3 C and 1 M class events were recorded on March 13. Region 9866 
produced a C1.0 flare at 05:51 UTC. Region 9859 was the source of a C7.8 flare 
at 22:09 UTC. Region 9871 generated an M1.0 long duration event peaking at 23:35 
UTC (a type IV radio sweep was associated with this event, as was a CME off the 
southeast limb).
Region 9866 finally produced a major flare, an M5.7 flare at 01:50 UTC on March 
14. After the flare a bright loop was visible originating from the large 
trailing penumbra. There may have been a geoeffective CME associated with this 
event.
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.
Coronal holes
No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 14 and most 
of March 15. Forecasts for the remainder of March 15 and March 16 are uncertain 
due to the possibility of a significant geoeffective CME associated with the 
major flare in region 9866 early on March 14. Long distance medium wave (AM) 
band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is 
fair to poor.
      Coronal holes (1)Coronal mass ejections (2)M and X class flares (3)


1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Active solar regions (Recent map)
      Solar regionDate numberedActual no. sunspotsLocation at 
      midnightAreaClassificationComment
      98532002.03.02 S24W78  plage
      98562002.03.032S03W590150HAX 
      98592002.03.041S11W660010HRXnow spotless
      98602002.03.05 S06W43  plage
      98612002.03.05 N08W38  plage
      98642002.03.076N19W090060CSO 
      98652002.03.081N13E020000AXXnow spotless
      98662002.03.0837S11E200820EKIbeta-gamma-delta
      98672002.03.11 S31W09  plage
      98682002.03.117N19E070020CSO 
      98692002.03.112N21E140010HSXnow spotless
      98702002.03.114S20E370120EAO
      98712002.03.134S21E700150DAO
      Total number of sunspots:64

Monthly solar data
      MonthAverage solar fluxInternational sunspot numberSmoothed sunspot number
      2000.04184.2125.5120.8
      cycle 23 sunspot max. 
      2000.07202.3170.1119.8
      2001.01166.695.6108.7 (-3.3)
      2001.02146.680.6104.1 (-4.6)
      2001.03177.7113.5104.8 (+0.7)
      2001.04177.7107.7107.6 (+2.8)
      2001.05147.196.6108.7 (+1.1)
      2001.06173.0134.0109.8 (+1.1)
      2001.07131.382.2111.7 (+1.9)
      2001.08162.9106.8113.6 (+1.8)
      2001.09233.2 150.7(113.7 predicted, +0.1)
      2001.10207.6125.6(111.7 predicted, -2.0)
      2001.11210.6106.5(110.2 predicted, -1.5)
      2001.12235.1131.8(106.9 predicted, -3.3)
      2002.01226.6113.9(103.3 predicted, -3.6)
      2002.02205.0108.0(101.9 predicted, -1.4)
      2002.03180.8 (1) 64.0 (2)(97.6 predicted, -4.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. 
The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own 
observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar 
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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