Solar Terrestrial Activity ReportSolar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update March 12, 2002 at 04:55 UTC. 
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 4, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 4, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 4, 
2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 
2002)]
Recent development
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 11. Solar wind speed 
ranged between 348 and 450 km/sec.
Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 182.3, the planetary A index was 9 
(3-hour K indices: 3322 3232, Boulder K indices: 3322 2323). Region 9851 decayed 
into spotless plage and is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9856 was quiet 
and stable, as was region 9859. Region 9864 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 
9865 was quiet and stable. Region 9866 developed slowly and has a magnetic delta 
structure within the trailing spots section. A major flare is possible. New 
region 9867 emerged briefly in the southeast quadrant, it is now spotless. New 
region 9868 emerged early in the day in the northeast quadrant, quickly at first 
and then without much change during the latter half of the day. New region 9869 
emerged in the northeast quadrant, just northeast of region 9868. New region 
9870 was finally numbered. The region is decaying slowly. A very active region 
is currently at the southeast limb and should begin to rotate into view soon. 
This region is capable of M class flaring and could perhaps produce major 
flares.
Flares and CMEs
A total of 3 C class events were recorded on March 11, none of the events were 
optically correlated. A C3 long duration event which began late in the day and 
peaked early on March 12 was associated with a region at the southeast limb and 
another CME heading east wards.
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level.
Coronal holes
No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 12-14. Long 
distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and 
upper middle latitudes is fair to poor.
      Coronal holes (1)Coronal mass ejections (2)M and X class flares (3)


1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Active solar regions (Recent map)
      Solar regionDate numberedActual no. sunspotsLocation at 
      midnightAreaClassificationComment
      98512002.03.011S06W840040HSXnow spotless
      98522002.03.01 N17W70  plage
      98532002.03.02 S24W52  plage
      98552002.03.03 N13W81  plage 
      98562002.03.032S03W320160HSX 
      98582002.03.04 S29W86  plage
      98592002.03.044S11W460020CRO 
      98602002.03.05 S06W17  plage
      98612002.03.05 N08W12  plage
      98642002.03.074N19E140050CSO 
      98652002.03.081N15E300020HRX 
      98662002.03.0823S08E470870EKIbeta-gamma-delta
      98672002.03.113S30E160010BXOnow spotless
      98682002.03.1111N19E320060DAO 
      98692002.03.111N24E420000AXX 
      98702002.03.113S17E620130DSO 
      Total number of sunspots:53 

Monthly solar data
      MonthAverage solar fluxInternational sunspot numberSmoothed sunspot number
      2000.04184.2125.5120.8
      cycle 23 sunspot max. 
      2000.07202.3170.1119.8
      2001.01166.695.6108.7 (-3.3)
      2001.02146.680.6104.1 (-4.6)
      2001.03177.7113.5104.8 (+0.7)
      2001.04177.7107.7107.6 (+2.8)
      2001.05147.196.6108.7 (+1.1)
      2001.06173.0134.0109.8 (+1.1)
      2001.07131.382.2111.7 (+1.9)
      2001.08162.9106.8113.6 (+1.8)
      2001.09233.2 150.7(113.7 predicted, +0.1)
      2001.10207.6125.6(111.7 predicted, -2.0)
      2001.11210.6106.5(110.2 predicted, -1.5)
      2001.12235.1131.8(106.9 predicted, -3.3)
      2002.01226.6113.9(103.3 predicted, -3.6)
      2002.02205.0108.0(101.9 predicted, -1.4)
      2002.03180.7 (1) 54.5 (2)(97.6 predicted, -4.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. 
The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own 
observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar 
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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