Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 10, 2002 at 05:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 4, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 4, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 4, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 9. Solar wind speed ranged between 369 and 462 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 183.7, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour K indices: 1002 3321, Boulder K indices: 1002 3332). Region 9851 decayed further and was quiet. Region 9853 decayed further and could become spotless today. Region 9856 was quiet and stable. Region 9859 decayed significantly and could become spotless today or tomorrow. Region 9864 developed slowly and could produce further C class flares. Region 9865 was unchanged and quiet. Region 9866 rotated fully into view revealing a large region capable of producing major flares. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C and 2 M class events were recorded on March 9. Region 9864 produced a C1.8 flare at 05:20, a C3.3/1F flare at 14:17 and a C1.6 flare at 16:19 UTC. Region 9866 generated a C1.8 flare at 09:12, a long duration M2.6/1F event peaking at 18:56 and a long duration M1.3/1F event peaking at 22:10 UTC. A weak type IV radio sweep was observed with the latter event, as was a small CME off the east limb. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 10-12. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor and improving. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9851 2002.03.01 9 S04W52 0060 DSO 9852 2002.03.01 N17W44 plage 9853 2002.03.02 3 S22W26 0020 CSO 9854 2002.03.03 N10W89 plage 9855 2002.03.03 N13W55 plage 9856 2002.03.03 2 S03W06 0160 HSX 9858 2002.03.04 S29W60 plage 9859 2002.03.04 9 S10W20 0030 DSO 9860 2002.03.05 S06E09 plage 9861 2002.03.05 N08E14 plage 9863 2002.03.06 N18W76 plage 9864 2002.03.07 5 N19E43 0070 CSO 9865 2002.03.08 1 N14E58 0000 AXX 9866 2002.03.08 8 S10E73 0560 EKI beta-gamma Total number of sunspots: 37 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (113.7 predicted, +0.1) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (111.7 predicted, -2.0) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (110.2 predicted, -1.5) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (106.9 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (103.3 predicted, -3.6) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (101.9 predicted, -1.4) 2002.03 180.7 (1) 45.9 (2) (97.6 predicted, -4.3) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]