Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 6, 2002 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 4, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 4, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 4, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on March 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 538 and 733 km/sec under the influence of a high speed coronal stream. Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 172.2, the planetary A index was 15 (3-hour K indices: 3423 3433, Boulder K indices: 3332 3423). Region 9843 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9845 decayed further and was quiet. A small M class flare from this region is still possible. Region 9851 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9853 was quiet and stable, as was region 9856. Region 9857 decayed slowly and will rotate over the southwest limb on March 7. Region 9858 decayed and could become spotless today. Region 9859 decayed slowly and was quiet, the region could soon become spotless. New region 9860 rotated into view at the southeast limb, the region is unimpressive and could soon become spotless. New region 9861 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs No flaring of significance was observed on March 5. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 6 due to a coronal stream, quiet to unsettled is expected for March 7-9. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9843 2002.02.22 1 S26W84 0010 AXX 9845 2002.02.23 19 N17W60 0430 FAI beta-gamma area too large 9847 2002.02.24 S13W69 plage 9848 2002.02.25 S19W71 plage 9849 2002.02.25 N23W36 plage 9851 2002.03.01 19 S06E02 0070 DAI 9852 2002.03.01 N15E13 plage 9853 2002.03.02 10 S23E28 0080 DAO 9854 2002.03.03 N10W37 plage 9855 2002.03.03 N13W03 plage 9856 2002.03.03 5 S06E48 0180 CAO 9857 2002.03.04 4 S04W72 0030 BXO 9858 2002.03.04 3 S30W08 0020 DSO 9859 2002.03.04 4 S10E34 0030 CRO 9860 2002.03.05 2 S06E61 0020 AXX 9861 2002.03.05 1 N07E66 0030 HSX Total number of sunspots: 68 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (113.7 predicted, +0.1) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (111.7 predicted, -2.0) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (110.2 predicted, -1.5) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (106.9 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (103.3 predicted, -3.6) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (101.9 predicted, -1.4) 2002.03 181.7 (1) 27.1 (2) (97.6 predicted, -4.3) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]