Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 5, 2002 at 04:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 4, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 4, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 4, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 4. Solar wind speed ranged between 371 and 627 km/sec. A high speed coronal stream influenced the field all day but has so far only caused a fairly mild disturbance. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 174.9 (dropping to its lowest level since late November, 2001), the planetary A index was 9 (3-hour K indices: 3212 2332, Boulder K indices: 3222 3443). Region 9840 decayed into spotless plage but was still included by SEC/NOAA in their spot summary. Region 9843 decayed further and has only one spot left, the region is about to rotate over the southwest limb. Region 9844 rotated off the visible disk, no spots were visible after 06h UTC. Region 9845 decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. There is still a minor chance of a small M class flare from this region. Region 9851 developed slowly and quietly, as did region 9853. Region 9854 decayed into spotless plage, as did region 9855. Region 9856 was quiet and stable. New region 9857 emerged in the southwest quadrant. New regions 9858 and 9859 emerged in the southeast quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C class events were recorded on March 4. Region 9845 produced a C1.4 flare at 06:10 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on March 1-3. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on March 5 and quiet to active on March 6 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9837 2002.02.20 N10W83 plage 9840 2002.02.21 5 S19W77 0060 CAO area too large, now spotless! 9843 2002.02.22 1 S26W72 0070 CSO area too large, should be 0020 9844 2002.02.23 4 N21W87 0080 CAO 9845 2002.02.23 26 N17W46 0420 FKO beta-gamma 9847 2002.02.24 S13W56 plage 9848 2002.02.25 S19W58 plage 9849 2002.02.25 N23W23 plage 9851 2002.03.01 14 S06E16 0070 DAI 9852 2002.03.01 N15E26 plage 9853 2002.03.02 7 S23E42 0080 DAO 9854 2002.03.03 5 N10W24 0030 CAO now spotless 9855 2002.03.03 5 N13E10 0030 CRO actually spotless 9856 2002.03.03 3 S08E61 0220 CSO 9857 2002.03.04 2 S04W58 0000 AXX 9858 2002.03.04 3 S30E05 0030 DAO 9859 2002.03.04 2 S10E47 0030 CSO Total number of sunspots: 77 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (113.7 predicted, +0.1) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (111.7 predicted, -2.0) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (110.2 predicted, -1.5) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (106.9 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (103.3 predicted, -3.6) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (101.9 predicted, -1.4) 2002.03 184.1 (1) 21.7 (2) (97.6 predicted, -4.3) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]