Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 4, 2002 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 4, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 4, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 4, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on March 3. Solar wind speed ranged between 309 and 410 km/sec. The interplanetary magnetic field strengthened suddenly at about 22h UTC at ACE while the solar wind speed had been increasing slowly since the afternoon. This may have been the arrival of the coronal stream expected to begin on March 4. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 182.7, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour K indices: 1132 3334, Boulder K indices: 1132 3334). Region 9840 reemerged with a few spots. Region 9843 decayed significantly and was quiet. Region 9844 is rotating quietly over the northwest limb. Region 9845 decayed, particularly in the trailing spots section. There is still a minor chance of a small M class flare from this region. Region 9848 was spotless all day in all available images. Region 9851 developed slowly and quietly, as did region 9853. New region 9854 emerged in the northwest quadrant. New region 9855 emerged in the northeast quadrant, decayed quickly and was spotless by the end of the day. New region 9856 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C class events were recorded on March 3, none of the flares were optically correlated. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on March 1-3 and will cause a geomagnetic disturbance on March 4-6. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on March 4, unsettled to minor storm on March 5 and quiet to active on March 6 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9837 2002.02.20 N10W70 plage 9840 2002.02.21 4 S16W64 0010 BXO 9843 2002.02.22 7 S25W60 0050 DAO 9844 2002.02.23 5 N23W76 0100 CAO 9845 2002.02.23 26 N18W33 0390 FKI beta-gamma 9847 2002.02.24 S13W43 plage 9848 2002.02.25 1 S19W45 0000 AXX actually spotless 9849 2002.02.25 N23W10 plage 9851 2002.03.01 7 S06E29 0040 CAO 9852 2002.03.01 N15E39 plage 9853 2002.03.02 3 S23E54 0050 HAX 9854 2002.03.03 8 N11W09 0020 CSO 9855 2002.03.03 7 N12E24 0020 CAO now spotless 9856 2002.03.03 1 S06E74 0110 HAX Total number of sunspots: 69 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (113.7 predicted, +0.1) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (111.7 predicted, -2.0) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (110.2 predicted, -1.5) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (106.9 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (103.3 predicted, -3.6) 2002.02 205.0 108.0 (101.9 predicted, -1.4) 2002.03 187.2 (1) 15.3 (2) (97.6 predicted, -4.3) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]