Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update February 14, 2002 at 05:00 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update February 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update February 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update February 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 454 and 562 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 203.5, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour K indices: 2133 3321, Boulder K indices: 3233 3411). Region 9810 was quiet and stable and rotated over the northwest limb early on Feb.14. Region 9811 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9819 reemerged with a few spots but appears to be decaying again. Region 9821 decayed further and was quiet. Occasional C class flares are possible. Region 9822 decayed and appeared to be spotless late in the day, however, early on Feb.14 new development has been observed in the region. Region 9823 decayed and could soon become spotless. Region 9824 was quiet and stable. Region 9825 developed further and could produce M class flares. A magnetic delta structure was observed in one of the smaller penumbras in the northern part of the region. Region 9826 was quiet and stable. Flares and CMEs A total of 10 C class events were recorded on February 13. Region 9825 produced a C1.9 flare at 00:55, a C2.6 flare at 01:25, a C7.8/1N flare at 07:12m a C2.8 flare at 08:57 and a C2.0 flare at 23:35 UTC. Region 9822 generated a C3.2 flare at 09:48 UTC. A full halo CME was observed beginning at the southeast limb at 21:18 UTC in LASCO C3 images. Its source appears to have been several days behind the limb. February 12: Region 9825 was the source of a C5.8 long duration event peaking at 14:42 UTC. This event appears to have been the source of a slow CME with most of the mass ejection observed off the northeast limb. Faint emissions were observed at the west limb several hours after the event, and it is not obvious whether these emissions were caused by the above CME or a backsided CME. There is a chance of a minor CME impact on February 15 or 16. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes What could be a small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on February 12. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 14. There is a possibility of a few unsettled to active intervals on February 15 as a coronal stream could reach the Earth. A CME could reach the Earth on February 15 or 16 causing unsettled to active conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9810 2002.02.01 1 N10W84 0090 HAX 9811 2002.02.02 1 S25W60 0030 HSX 9815 2002.02.03 N11W63 plage 9817 2002.02.05 S06W84 plage 9818 2002.02.05 N06W51 plage 9819 2002.02.05 3 S29W33 0020 CSO 9820 2002.02.07 N14W38 plage 9821 2002.02.08 14 S13W53 0330 DAI 9822 2002.02.08 4 N17W05 0010 BXO 9823 2002.02.09 2 S04W36 0020 HAX 9824 2002.02.09 1 N22E16 0180 HSX 9825 2002.02.09 38 N14E16 0460 FAI beta-gamma-delta 9826 2002.02.10 4 S23W02 0080 DSO area too large 9827 2002.02.11 S25W69 plage 9828 2002.02.11 S16E25 plage Total number of sunspots: 68 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (113.5 predicted, +1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (113.3 predicted, -0.2) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (111.0 predicted, -2.3) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (109.6 predicted, -1.4) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (106.2 predicted, -3.4) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (102.6 predicted, -3.6) 2002.02 214.6 (1) 104.3 (2) (101.2 predicted, -1.4) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]