Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update February 10, 2002 at 04:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update February 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update February 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update February 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 9. Solar wind speed ranged between 420 and 489 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 199.4, the planetary A index was 9 (3-hour K indices: 2323 2223, Boulder K indices: 1233 2233). Region 9808 decayed further and was spotless by noon. Region 9809 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9810 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9811 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 9814 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 9815 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9818 reemerged with a couple of spots but is spotless again early on Feb.10. Region 9819 was quiet and stable, as was region 9820. Region 9821 developed very quickly and has M class flaring potential. Region 9822 was mostly quiet and stable. New region 9823 emerged quickly in the southeast quadrant. New region 9824 rotated into view at the northeast limb. New region 9825 rotated partly into view at the northeast limb and has M class flare potential. Flares and CMEs A total of 10 C class events were recorded on February 9. Region 9822 produced a C2.6 flare at 08:17 UTC. Region 9821 generated a C2.2 flare at 09:36, a C1.5 flare at 21:00 and a C3.1 long duration event peaking at 23:41 UTC. Region 9811 was the source of a C1.7 flare at 19:44 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 10-12. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9807 2002.01.30 S27W47 plage 9808 2002.01.31 3 N17W67 0010 AXX now spotless 9809 2002.01.31 2 S05W50 0060 CSO 9810 2002.02.01 9 N10W27 0150 CSO 9811 2002.02.02 13 S27W05 0130 CAO 9814 2002.02.03 1 N06W63 0010 AXX now spotless 9815 2002.02.03 9 N11W09 0020 BXO 9817 2002.02.05 S06W32 plage 9818 2002.02.05 2 N06E01 0020 HSX now spotless 9819 2002.02.05 3 S31E19 0010 CRO 9820 2002.02.07 1 N14E15 0010 AXX 9821 2002.02.08 26 S14E03 0080 DSI beta-gamma area way too small 9822 2002.02.08 5 N17E56 0070 CSO 9823 2002.02.09 4 S05E24 0020 CSO 9824 2002.02.09 1 N21E67 0100 HSX 9825 2002.02.09 6 N12E69 0320 EKO Total number of sunspots: 85 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (113.5 predicted, +1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (113.3 predicted, -0.2) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (111.0 predicted, -2.3) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (109.6 predicted, -1.4) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (106.2 predicted, -3.4) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (102.6 predicted, -3.6) 2002.02 217.7 (1) 77.5 (2) (101.2 predicted, -1.4) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]