Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update February 8, 2002 at 04:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update February 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update February 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update February 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on February 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 551 and 643 km/sec under the influence of a high speed coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 191.7, the planetary A index was 14 (3-hour K indices: 2343 4223, Boulder K indices: 2443 4323). Region 9802 decayed further and is rotating quietly over the southwest limb. Region 9806 was quiet and stable. Region 9807 decayed further and could soon become spotless. Region 9808 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9809 did not change significantly and remained quiet. Region 9810 was quiet and stable. Region 9811 decayed and was quiet. Regions 9815 and 9816 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9819 was quiet and stable. New region 9820 emerged in the northeast quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C class events were recorded on February 7. Region 9816 produced a C4.1 flare at 00:56 UTC. None of the other C class events were optically correlated. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 8-10. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9802 2002.01.26 8 S14W80 0110 DSO 9805 2002.01.28 N14W65 plage 9806 2002.01.28 1 N13W63 0030 HSX 9807 2002.01.30 8 S27W22 0020 CSO 9808 2002.01.31 8 N18W40 0070 DSO 9809 2002.01.31 7 S05W24 0080 DSO 9810 2002.02.01 3 N10E01 0170 HAX 9811 2002.02.02 11 S26E20 0140 DAO 9812 2002.02.02 N11W82 plage 9813 2002.02.03 S24W65 plage 9814 2002.02.03 N07W39 plage 9815 2002.02.03 10 N12E17 0080 CAO 9816 2002.02.04 4 S11W70 0030 CSO 9817 2002.02.05 S06W06 plage 9818 2002.02.05 N07E27 plage 9819 2002.02.05 5 S31E43 0030 CSO 9820 2002.02.07 3 N15E46 0020 CSO Total number of sunspots: 68 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (113.5 predicted, +1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (113.3 predicted, -0.2) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (111.0 predicted, -2.3) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (109.6 predicted, -1.4) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (106.2 predicted, -3.4) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (102.6 predicted, -3.6) 2002.02 224.1 (1) 61.3 (2) (101.2 predicted, -1.4) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]