Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update February 7, 2002 at 04:35 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update February 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update February 2, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update February 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on February 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 565 and 740 km/sec under the influence of a high speed coronal stream. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 202.5, the planetary A index was 16 (3-hour K indices: 3344 4332, Boulder K indices: 2343 3432). Region 9801 is rotating quietly over the southwest limb. Region 9802 decayed further and was quiet, the region will rotate off the visible disk on Feb.8. Region 9806 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9807 decayed quickly and was quiet. Region 9808 was generally unchanged and quiet. Region 9809 did not change significantly and remained quiet. Region 9810 was quiet and stable. Region 9811, although mostly unchanged, began to produce C flares. Region 9812 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 9815 developed slowly and could produce further C class flares. Region 9816 decayed significantly but could still produce C class flares. Region 9817 decayed and could become spotless today. Region 9818 decayed and could become spotless today. Region 9819 was quiet and stable. Flares and CMEs A total of 8 C and 1 M class events were recorded on February 6. Region 9816 produced a C8.2 flare (associated with a moderate type II radio sweep) at 04:40, a C2.9 flare at 05:09 and a C1.7 flare at 17:07 UTC. Region 9811 generated a C3.3 flare at 06:11 and a C4.0 flare at 19:39 UTC. Region 9815 was the source of a C5.3 flare at 20:14 UTC. An optically uncorrelated M1.4 flare was recorded at 11:32 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 7, possibly with a few active intervals. Quiet to unsettled is expected for February 8-9. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 9801 2002.01.25 1 S02W86 0070 HSX 9802 2002.01.26 17 S13W68 0310 EAI beta-gamma 9805 2002.01.28 N14W52 plage 9806 2002.01.28 1 N12W49 0020 HSX 9807 2002.01.30 9 S27W11 0030 CAO 9808 2002.01.31 13 N17W26 0060 DAO 9809 2002.01.31 8 S04W11 0090 DSO 9810 2002.02.01 6 N11E13 0130 CAO 9811 2002.02.02 12 S25E32 0200 DAO 9812 2002.02.02 1 N11W69 0000 AXX now spotless 9813 2002.02.03 S24W52 plage 9814 2002.02.03 N07W26 plage 9815 2002.02.03 7 N12E30 0100 CAO 9816 2002.02.04 4 S11W58 0060 DAO 9817 2002.02.05 1 S06E07 0000 AXX 9818 2002.02.05 2 N07E40 0010 AXX 9819 2002.02.05 4 S30E57 0050 CAO Total number of sunspots: 86 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (113.5 predicted, +1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (113.3 predicted, -0.2) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (111.0 predicted, -2.3) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (109.6 predicted, -1.4) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (106.2 predicted, -3.4) 2002.01 226.6 113.9 (102.6 predicted, -3.6) 2002.02 229.5 (1) 54.9 (2) (101.2 predicted, -1.4) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]