:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 Feb 05 2212 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 January - 03 February 2002

Solar activity was at low levels during most of the period, but
briefly rose to moderate levels on 31 January. Activity was low
during 28 – 30 January due to C-class flares. Most of these were
from Regions 9800 (N08, L = 047, class/area Fkc/600 on 29 January)
and 9802 (S15, L = 022, class/area Ekc/780 on 01 February). Both
regions were large and magnetically complex, each exhibiting a
magnetic delta configuration for a time. However, both began to
gradually decay during the second half of the period, though Region
9802 remained magnetically complex. A large filament disappeared
from the Sun’s southeast quadrant on 28 January associated with a
partial-halo CME. Activity rose to moderate on 31 January due to an
M3 X-ray flare at 31/1444 UTC from Region 9787 (S07, L = 130,
class/area Dko/470 on 24 January), which was near the west limb.
Activity was low during the rest of the period with isolated C-class
subflares from Regions 9800 and 9802.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the period. A weak CME shock
front passed the spacecraft late on 31 January associated with
relatively minor increases in solar wind velocity, temperature,
density, and interplanetary field intensity. This passage may have
been associated with a partial-halo CME observed near the west limb
on 27 January. A second CME passage occurred on 02 February
associated with modest increases in velocity and temperature as well
as a sustained period of southward IMF Bz with maximum deflections
to minus 13 nT. This passage may have been associated with the
filament disappearance mentioned above. There were no disturbances
during the rest of the period.

There were no proton events at geosynchronous orbit during the
period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels for most of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
through 01 February, although there was a sudden impulse at 31/2127
UTC (19 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). Activity
increased to unsettled to minor storm levels early on 02 February
then decreased to quiet to unsettled during the latter half of the
day. Quiet to unsettled levels prevailed during the remainder of the
period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 February - 04 March 2002

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There is
a fair chance for isolated low-level M-class flares during the
period. There will be a slight chance for an isolated major flare
during the period.

There will be a slight chance for a proton flare during the forecast
period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels during most of the period. However, high flux levels
will be possible during 07 – 10 February.

Active conditions will be possible during 06 – 07 February due to
recurrent coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected during the rest of the period.


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