:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 Jan 29 2212 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
21 - 27 January 2002

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. The period began with
activity at low levels due to isolated C-class flares from a few
unremarkable sunspot groups (for flare details, please refer to the
Optical Flares or Energetic Events lists). Activity increased to
moderate levels on 22 January due to an impulsive, low-level M-class
flare from Region 9791 (S03, L = 195, class/area Dso/120 on 21
January). Region 9791 began to gradually decay following the
M-flare. Activity decreased to low levels during 23 – 25 January due
to C-class subflares. During this period Region 9794 (N12, L = 113,
class/area Dao/090 on 25 January) produced a few C-class subflares
associated with Type II radio sweeps. Region 9794 was unimpressive
in terms of size and structure. A long-duration C7 X-ray flare
peaked at 24/0439 UTC. This flare was associated with a type II
radio sweep and a non-earth-directed CME and appeared to be from a
source beyond the east limb. Activity increased to moderate levels
on 26 January as Region 9802 (S14, L = 023, class/area Dso/230 on 27
January) produced an M1/Sf flare late in the day. Region 9802 was
moderate-sized with a slight degree of magnetic complexity. Activity
dropped to low levels on 27 January. An event occurred from beyond
the northwest limb around midday on 27 January. This event was
associated with a non-Earth-directed partial-halo CME as well as a
>10 MeV proton flux enhancement.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the period. Solar wind
velocities were elevated during 21 January, possibly due to a
high-speed stream associated with a coronal hole. Velocities peaked
at around 550 km/sec during this period. There were no significant
disturbances observed during the rest of the period.

There were no proton events detected at geosynchronous orbit.
However, a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement (peak flux
9.0 PFU) occurred during the latter half of 27 January following an
event from beyond the northwest limb of the Sun.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels during 21 – 22 January, then decreased to
normal levels during the rest of the period.

No significant geomagnetic field activity occurred during the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 January - 25 February 2002

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated
low-level M-class flares are expected. There will be a slight chance
for a major flare during the first half of the period.

There will be a slight chance for a proton flare during the forecast
period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels during most of the period. However, high flux levels
will be possible during 07 – 10 February.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels during most of the period. However, active conditions will be
possible during 06 – 08 February due to coronal hole effects.


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