:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 Jan 23 2212 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
14 - 20 January 2002

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. The period began with
activity at moderate levels due to isolated low-level M-class flares
from Regions 9775 and 9782 (for flare specifics, please refer to the
Energetic Events or Optical Flares lists). Region 9775 (S05, L  =
310, class area Fki/280 on 15 January) also produced an M-class
flare on 16 January as it rotated out of view. It was moderately
complex and may have been in a growth phase as it crossed the west
limb. Region 9782 (N06, L = 223, class/area Dao/320 on 12 January)
was in a gradual growth phase through 17 January, then gradually
decayed during the rest of the period. A long-duration M4 X-ray
flare occurred at 14/0627 UTC from a source beyond the Sun’s
southwest limb. This flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep
and a non-Earth-directed halo CME. Activity dropped to low levels on
15 January, then returned to moderate levels on 16 January as Region
9775 produced an M-class flare while crossing the west limb. Region
9773 (N14, L = 326, class/area Eki/570 on 11 January) also crossed
the west limb on 16 January following a period of gradual decay.
Activity decreased to low levels during 17 – 18 January with
isolated C-class flares. Activity rose to moderate levels on 19
January by virtue of an impulsive M-class flare from Region 9787
(S07, L = 130, class/area Cko/420 on 20 January), which had begun to
gradually develop. Activity dropped to low levels on the last day of
the period with isolated C-class subflares.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the period. No significant
disturbances were observed during 14 – 18 January. A high-speed
stream associated with a coronal hole commenced on 19 January and
was in progress as the period came to a close. Solar wind velocities
increased to as high as 570 km/sec during the course of this stream
(which subsided on 21 January).

A greater than 10 MeV proton event occurred during 15 – 16 January.
It began at 15/1435 UTC, reached a maximum of 15 PFU at 15/2000 UTC,
and ended at 16/1205 UTC. The source for this event may have been
the long-duration M4 X-ray flare on 14 January.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged
from normal to (briefly) high levels during 14 – 19 January, then
decreased to normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels through
18 January. Activity increased to unsettled to minor storm levels
during the latter half of 19 January, then decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on 20 January.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 January - 18 February 2002

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated
low-level M-class flares will be possible throughout the period.
There will be a chance for isolated major flare activity beginning
30 January as old Region 9773 returns to the visible disk.

There will be a chance for a proton event at geosynchronous orbit
during the latter half of the forecast period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels during most of the
period. However, high flux levels will be possible during 07 – 10
February.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels during most of the period. However, active conditions will be
possible during 06 – 08 February due to coronal hole effects.


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