Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 30, 2002 at 04:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 29. Solar wind speed ranged between 337 and 409 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 261.0, the planetary A index was 4 (3-hour K indices: 2112 1111, Boulder K indices: 2211 1112). Region 9787 decayed slowly and will rotate over the southwest limb on January 31. Minor M class flaring is still possible. Region 9794 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 9798 decayed and was spotless by noon. Region 9799 decayed further and was quiet. Region 9800 developed slowly. An negative polarity area emerged just south of the leading spots and increased the complexity of the region. M class flares are possible. No magnetic delta structures were observed at any time during the day. Region 9801 was quiet and stable. Region 9802 developed a magnetic delta structure in its central section. M class flares are possible. Region 9803 decayed quietly and will rotate off the visible disk on Jan.31. Region 9804 has been spotless in all available images since early evening on January 28, still SEC/NOAA claims the region had 2 spots. Region 9805 developed slowly early in the day, then decayed. Region 9806 was quiet and stable. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were recorded on January 29. Region 9800 produced a C3.6 flare at 04:24, a C7.3/1F flare at 08:48, a C4.0 flare at 10:28 and a C5.8 flare at 12:55 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 30-February 1. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair and slowly improving. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9787 2002.01.17 5 S07W73 0380 DHO 9794 2002.01.20 2 N14W59 0020 HSX now spotless 9796 2002.01.23 N09W60 plage 9797 2002.01.23 S18W51 plage 9798 2002.01.23 2 S02W39 0010 AXX now spotless 9799 2002.01.23 6 S23W23 0070 DSO 9800 2002.01.25 52 N07E10 0600 FKC beta-gamma 9801 2002.01.25 5 S03E23 0110 DSO 9802 2002.01.26 20 S16E36 0390 EKI beta-gamma-delta 9803 2002.01.27 5 S24W73 0060 DSO 9804 2002.01.28 2 S19E13 0010 AXX actually spotless! 9805 2002.01.28 4 N14E51 0040 DSO 9806 2002.01.28 1 N10E57 0030 HSX Total number of sunspots: 104 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 225.0 (1) 173.7 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]