Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 29, 2002 at 04:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 315 and 430 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 259.8, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour K indices: 2112 3222, Boulder K indices: 2122 2322). Region 9787 decayed slowly and was quiet. Minor M class flaring is still possible. Region 9788 decayed and rotated off the visible disk. Region 9794 was quiet and stable. Region 9798 decayed and could become spotless today. Region 9799 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9800 developed slowly. An negative polarity area emerged just south of the leading spots and increased the complexity of the region. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9801 was quiet and stable. Region 9802 developed slowly in the trailing section. Minor M class flaring is possible. Region 9803 was quiet and stable. New region 9804 emerged in the southeast quadrant, the region is spotless early on Jan.29. New region 9805 emerged at the northeast limb. New region 9806 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were recorded on January 28. Region 9788 produced a C9.6 flare at 03:10 UTC. Region 9800 generated a C8.1 flare at 17:54, a C2.6 flare at 22:37 UTC and a C9.6 flare at 23:49 UTC. A filament eruption was observed in LASCO EIT images starting at 09:12 UTC in the southeast quadrant. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1-C2 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 29-31. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 9787 2002.01.17 8 S08W60 0420 DKO 9788 2002.01.18 3 N18W85 0060 DSO 9792 2002.01.20 N03W81 plage 9793 2002.01.20 S14W79 plage 9794 2002.01.20 5 N14W44 0020 CRO 9796 2002.01.23 N09W47 plage 9797 2002.01.23 S18W38 plage 9798 2002.01.23 4 S03W22 0010 CSO 9799 2002.01.23 8 S24W10 0090 DAO 9800 2002.01.25 36 N07E23 0550 EKC beta-gamma 9801 2002.01.25 3 S03E38 0090 DSO 9802 2002.01.26 14 S16E49 0330 EKO beta-gamma 9803 2002.01.27 3 S25W60 0030 DSO 9804 2002.01.28 1 S19E27 0020 AXX now spotless 9805 2002.01.28 1 N14E64 0010 HRX 9806 2002.01.28 1 N11E70 0040 HSX Total number of sunspots: 87 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 223.7 (1) 166.8 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]