Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 27, 2002 at 06:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 26. Solar wind speed ranged between 354 and 492 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 244.1 (the measurement at 18h UTC was used as the 20h value was flare enhanced), the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 2222 2222, Boulder K indices: 2221 2332). Region 9787 was quiet and stable. Minor M class flaring is possible. Region 9788 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 9790 once again decayed and was spotless by the end of the day. Region 9793 decayed and could become spotless today. Region 9794 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9796 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9797 reemerged briefly with a few spots. Region 9798 decayed quietly and could become spotless today. Region 9799 developed at a moderate pace and seemed to have a weak magnetic delta late on Jan.26. Region 9800 developed moderately fast and could produce M class flares. Region 9801 was quiet and stable. New region 9802 rotated into view at the southeast limb. There is one section of the region where the magnetic gradients are fairly tight. Further M class flares are possible. Flares and CMEs A total of 4 C and 1 M class events were recorded on January 26. Region 9802 produced an M1.3 long duration event peaking at 20:05 UTC. Region 9788 generated a C6.2 flare at 22:28 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 27 and quiet to unsettled on January 28-29. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 9787 2002.01.17 12 S09W33 0410 DKO 9788 2002.01.18 17 N15W57 0190 DAO 9790 2002.01.19 1 N27W69 0010 AXX now spotless 9792 2002.01.20 N03W55 plage 9793 2002.01.20 1 S15W50 0020 HSX 9794 2002.01.20 5 N12W17 0050 DSO 9796 2002.01.23 N09W21 plage 9797 2002.01.23 3 S18W12 0010 BXO now spotless 9798 2002.01.23 2 S01E01 0010 BXO 9799 2002.01.23 9 S24E15 0150 CKO 9800 2002.01.25 27 N08E49 0230 DSI 9801 2002.01.25 2 S03E64 0100 CAO 9802 2002.01.26 5 S13E72 0140 DAO Total number of sunspots: 84 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 221.7 (1) 154.0 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]