Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 23, 2002 at 02:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 22. Solar wind speed ranged between 357 and 411 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 228.7, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour K indices: 1132 2222, Boulder K indices: 1122 3211). Region 9781 decayed slowly and is rotating off the visible disk. Regions 9782, 9783 and 9785 were quiet and stable. Region 9786 decayed slowly and will rotate over the southeast limb on January 24. Region 9787 developed slowly and could produce minor M class flares. Region 9788 developed slowly and could produce minor M class flares. Region 9789 decayed quickly and was spotless late in the day. Region 9790 was quiet and stable, the region could become spotless today. Region 9791 decayed after it had produced an M class flare. Region 9793 developed slowly and was mostly quiet. Flares and CMEs A total of 11 C and 1 M class events were recorded on January 22. Region 9791 produced an M1.3/1N flare at 09:00 UTC. Region 9789 generated a C5.0 flare at 13:!3 UTC. Region 9793 was the source of a C1.4 flare at 16:31 UTC, while spotless region 9794 managed a C1.3 flare at 22:43 UTC. Region 9787 produced a C1.6 flare at 23:32 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 23-25. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 9781 2002.01.11 1 S04W82 0050 HSX 9782 2002.01.11 1 N08W75 0090 HSX 9783 2002.01.12 10 S10W52 0140 CAO 9784 2002.01.13 S28W60 plage 9785 2002.01.13 2 N13W66 0090 DSO 9786 2002.01.16 1 S26W73 0050 HSX 9787 2002.01.17 13 S06E19 0400 DKO beta-gamma 9788 2002.01.18 18 N18E00 0200 DAI 9789 2002.01.18 4 N18W42 0010 CRO now spotless 9790 2002.01.19 3 N29W15 0010 CSO 9791 2002.01.20 10 S02W46 0070 CSO 9792 2002.01.20 N07W03 plage 9793 2002.01.20 5 S12E01 0020 CSO 9794 2002.01.20 N11E38 plage Total number of sunspots: 68 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 219.5 (1) 127.0 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]