Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 22, 2002 at 04:30 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 21. Solar wind speed ranged between 367 and 548 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 224.5, the planetary A index was 9 (3-hour K indices: 3223 3232, Boulder K indices: 2322 3332). Regions 9781, 9782, 9783 and 9785 were mostly quiet and stable. Region 9786 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9787 was mostly unchanged and quiet, the region could produce minor M class flares. Region 9788 developed further and could produce minor M class flares. Region 9789 was quiet and stable. Region 9790 reemerged with a few spots. Region 9791 developed moderately fast and could be capable of minor M class flaring. Region 9792 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9793 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9794 was quiet and stable, the region could become spotless today. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C class events were recorded on January 21. Region 9788 produced a C1.7 flare at 01:39 and a C3.4 flare at 03:29 UTC. Region 9785 generated a C1.6 flare at 05:39 UTC. Region 9791 was the source of a C1.7 flare at 18:19 UTC and a C3.5 flare at 22:33 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 22-24. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9781 2002.01.11 1 S04W69 0070 HSX 9782 2002.01.11 1 N07W62 0080 HAX 9783 2002.01.12 5 S11W39 0130 CAO 9784 2002.01.13 S28W47 plage 9785 2002.01.13 6 N10W53 0100 DSO 9786 2002.01.16 4 S25W59 0070 DSO 9787 2002.01.17 7 S07E32 0430 EKO beta-gamma 9788 2002.01.18 14 N18E13 0160 DAI 9789 2002.01.18 10 N17W29 0070 DSO 9790 2002.01.19 3 N28W02 0010 BXO 9791 2002.01.20 6 S03W33 0120 DSO 9792 2002.01.20 N07E10 plage 9793 2002.01.20 8 S15E19 0050 DSO 9794 2002.01.20 2 N11E51 0020 BXO Total number of sunspots: 67 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 219.1 (1) 121.3 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]