Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 21, 2002 at 04:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 20. Solar wind speed ranged between 386 and 521 km/sec under the influence of a fairly benign coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 222.2, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 3212 2322, Boulder K indices: 2212 2332). Regions 9779 rotated quietly over the northwest limb. Region 9781 was quiet and decayed slowly. Region 9782 was quiet and stable, as were tegions 9783 and 9785. Region 9786 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9787 was mostly unchanged and quiet, the region could produce minor M class flares. Region 9788 developed slowly and may soon become capable of minor M class flaring. Region 9789 was quiet and stable. Region 9790 decayed and was spotless by noon. New region 9791 emerged in the southwest quadrant. New region 9792 emerged in the northeast quadrant, the region appeared to be spotless by the end of the day. New region 9793 emerged in the southeast quadrant. New region 9794 emerged near the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs Only 1 C class event was recorded on January 20, it was a C3.8 flare at 15:52 UTC in region 9788. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 21-23. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 9778 2002.01.08 S14W88 plage 9779 2002.01.08 2 N27W90 0030 HSX 9781 2002.01.11 2 S04W55 0060 HSX 9782 2002.01.11 3 N08W48 0140 CAO 9783 2002.01.12 6 S11W25 0130 CAO 9784 2002.01.13 S28W34 plage 9785 2002.01.13 6 N11W39 0110 DAO 9786 2002.01.16 6 S25W45 0080 DAO 9787 2002.01.17 6 S07E46 0420 CKO 9788 2002.01.18 16 N17E27 0090 DSO 9789 2002.01.18 7 N15W15 0020 CSO 9790 2002.01.19 1 N28E12 0000 AXX now spotless 9791 2002.01.20 9 S03W19 0030 CSO 9792 2002.01.20 2 N07E23 0010 BXO now spotless 9793 2002.01.20 5 S15E32 0020 CRO 9794 2002.01.20 1 N11E65 0010 AXX Total number of sunspots: 53 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 218.8 (1) 115.2 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]