Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 20, 2002 at 04:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 19. Solar wind speed ranged between 293 and 437 km/sec, increasing slowly after the arrival of a coronal stream at approximately 08h UTC. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 213.7, the planetary A index was 11 (3-hour K indices: 1122 4433, Boulder K indices: 0122 3533). Regions 9779 was quiet and stable and is rotating over the northwest limb. Region 9781 was quiet and decayed slowly. Region 9782 decayed slowly and was quiet. Regions 9783 and 9785 were quiet and stable. Region 9786 developed slowly and quietly. Region 9787 could produce further minor M class flares. Region 9788 developed slowly and was mostly quiet. Region 9789 was quiet and stable. New region 9790 emerged in the northeast quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C and 1 M class events were recorded on January 19. Region 9787 produced a C4.0 flare at 00:54 and an impulsive M1.2 flare at 10:05 UTC. Region 9788 generated a C1.8 flare at 20:09 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 20-22. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9777 2002.01.08 S06W79 plage 9778 2002.01.08 S14W75 plage 9779 2002.01.08 1 N29W64 0090 HAX 9781 2002.01.11 1 S05W28 0080 HSX 9782 2002.01.11 7 N07W35 0140 DAO 9783 2002.01.12 5 S11W12 0140 CAO 9784 2002.01.13 S28W21 plage 9785 2002.01.13 7 N09W26 0120 DAO 9786 2002.01.16 12 S25W32 0090 DAO 9787 2002.01.17 6 S07E59 0360 CKO 9788 2002.01.18 8 N17E40 0080 DSO 9789 2002.01.18 5 N15W02 0020 BXO 9790 2002.01.19 1 N28E25 0010 HSX Total number of sunspots: 53 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 218.6 (1) 108.4 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]