Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 16, 2002 at 02:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2001 (last update January 12, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 388 and 461 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 218.3, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour K indices: 1222 2222, Boulder K indices: 1222 2212). Region 9772 is rotating quietly out of view. Region 9773 decayed slowly is rotating over the northwest limb. Region 9775 developed further and still has a magnetic delta structure. M class flaring is possible until the region rotates off the visible disk on January 17. Region 9776 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 9778 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 9779 was quiet and stable, as was region 9781. Region 9782 did not change much and remains capable of producing occasional M class flares. Region 9783 was quiet and stable. Region 9785 was generally unchanged and quiet, the region could be capable of producing occasional minor M class flares. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C class events were recorded on January 15. Region 9773 produced a C2.1 flare at 04:35 UTC. Region 9782 generated a C2.6 flare at 10:00 UTC. Region 9775 was the source of a C4.6 flare at 17:52, a C3.4 flare at 18:09 and a C3.9 flare at 21:53 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere could rotate into a geoeffective position on January 16-17. The coronal hole has decreased in area over the last day and could close before it becomes geoeffective. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 17-18. A coronal stream could begin to influence the field on January 19 and cause unsettled to active conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9772 2002.01.03 1 S17W81 0030 HSX 9773 2002.01.04 7 N16W82 0260 EAO beta-gamma 9775 2002.01.07 14 S06W69 0280 FKI beta-gamma-delta 9776 2002.01.07 2 N08W50 0010 CSO 9777 2002.01.08 S06W27 plage 9778 2002.01.08 11 S15W18 0090 DAO 9779 2002.01.08 1 N29W24 0110 HSX 9781 2002.01.11 1 S05E13 0060 HSX 9782 2002.01.11 11 N06E20 0220 DAO beta-delta 9783 2002.01.12 2 S11E42 0260 HKX 9784 2002.01.13 S28E31 plage 9785 2002.01.13 5 N11E28 0190 DAO Total number of sunspots: 55 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2000.11 178.8 106.8 112.7 (-1.8) 2000.12 173.6 104.4 112.0 (-0.7) 2001.01 166.6 95.6 108.7 (-3.3) 2001.02 146.6 80.6 104.1 (-4.6) 2001.03 177.7 113.5 104.8 (+0.7) 2001.04 177.7 107.7 107.6 (+2.8) 2001.05 147.1 96.6 108.7 (+1.1) 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.1) 2001.07 131.3 82.2 (111.2 predicted, +1.4) 2001.08 162.9 106.8 (111.7 predicted, +0.5) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 (110.7 predicted, -1.0) 2001.10 207.6 125.6 (108.0 predicted, -2.7) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 (106.3 predicted, -1.7) 2001.12 235.1 131.8 (103.0 predicted, -3.3) 2002.01 220.1 (1) 90.0 (2) (99.4 predicted, -3.6) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]